Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

32 NSIDC, “Processes: Thermodynamics: Albedo” – см.: nsdic.org/seaice/ processe/albedo.html; просмотрено автором 26 июля 2007 г.

33 UNEP, op. cit., note 2.

34 J. L. Chen, C. R. Wilson, and D. D. Tapley, “Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet”, Science , vol. 313 (29 September 2006), pp. 1, 958–960; Isabella Velicogna and John Wahr, “Acceleration of Greenland Ice Mass Loss in Spring 2004”, Nature , vol. 443 (21 September 2006), pp. 329–331; S. B. Luthke et al., “Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss from Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations”, Science , vol. 314 (24 November 2006), pp. 1, 286–289; “Gravity Measurements Confirm Greenland’s Glaciers Precipitous Meltdown”, Scientific American , 19 October 2006.

35 Paul Brown, “Melting Ice Cap Triggering Earthquakes”, Guardian (London), 8 September 2007; Robert W. Corell, discussion with Jignasha Rana, Earth Policy Institute, 15 July 2009.

36 Ohio State University, “Greenland’s Glaciers Losing Ice Faster This Year than Last Year, Which Was Record-Setting Itself”, news release (Columbus, OH: 13 December 2008).

37 H. Jay Zwally et al., “Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow”, Science , vol. 297 (12 July 2002), pp. 218–222.

38 U. S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Antarctica: Fact Sheet” – см.: www.eia.doe.gov, September 2000.

39 “Giant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away”, Environment News Service , 19 March 2002; слова Вона приведены в статье: Andrew Revkin, “Large Ice Shelf in Antarctica Disintegrates at Great Speed”, New York Times , 20 March 2002.

40 “Breakaway Bergs Disrupt Antarctic Ecosystem”, Environment News Service , 9 May 2002; “Giant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away”, op. cit. note 39.

41 NSIDC, «Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapses in Antarctica” – см.: nsidc.org/ news/press/larsen_B/2002.html, 21 March 2002; “Breakaway Bergs Disrupt Antarctic Ecosystem”, op. cit. note 40; “Giant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away”, p. cit. note 39.

42 University of Colorado at Boulder, “NASA, CU-Boulder Study Shows Vast Regions of West Antarctica Melted in Recent Past”, press release (Boulder: 15 May 2008).

43 Peter Brown, “NASA Satellites Watch Polar Ice Shelf Break into Crushed Ice”, Scientific American , July 2008).

44 NASA Earth Observatory, “Wilkins Ice Bridge Collapse” – см.: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37806, размещено на сайте 8 апреля 2009 г.

45 Michael Byrnes, «New Antarctic Iceberg Split No Threat”, Reuters , 20 May 2002.

46 Robin McKie, “Scientists to Issue Stark Warning Over Dramatic New Sea Level Figures”, Guardian (London), 8 March 2009; IPCC, op. cit note 1, p. 13; Pfeffer, Harper, and O’Neel, op. cit. note 2; USGS, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.4: Abrupt Climate Change (Washington, DC: 2009), p. 9.

47 McGranahan et al., op. cit. note 26.

48 Там же.

49 World Glacier Monitoring Service, University of Zurich, “Glacier Mass Balance Data 2006 and 2007” – см.: www.geo.uzh.ch/wgms/mbb/ mbb10/sum07.html, материал обновлен 30 января 2009 г.

50 Lester R. Brown, “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India”, Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 20 March 2008).

51 USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution , электронная база данных – см.: www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, материал обновлен 12 мая 2009 г.

52 IPCC, op. cit. note 3, pp. 493–494; Emily Wax, “A Sacred River Endangered by Global Warming”, Washington Post, 17 June 2007.

53 Clifford Coonan, “China’s Water Supply Could be Cut Off as Tibet's, Glaciers Melt”, The Independent (London), 31 May 2007; UNEP, op. cit. note 2, p. 131; об орошении посевов риса водами реки Янцзы см.: «Yangtze River – Agriculture”, Encyclopedia Britannica , online encyclopedia, просмотрено 25 июля 2007 г.

54 Qiu, op. cit. note 12.

55 UNEP, op. cit. note 2, p. 131; Mehrdad Khalili, “The Cilmate of Iran: North, South, Kavir (Desert), Mountains”, San’ate Hamlo Naql , March 1997, pp. 48–53.

56 Lonnie Thompson, “Disappearing Glaciers Evidence of a Rapidly Changing Earth”, American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting, San Francisco, February 2001; Lonnie Thompson, “Receding Glaciers Erase Records of Climate History”, Science News , 14 February 2009; “The Peak of Mt Kilimanjaro As It Has Not Been Seen for 11,000 Years”, Guardian (London), 14 March 2005; Bancy Wangui, “Crisis Looms as Rivers Around Mt. Kenya Dry Up”, East Africa Standard , 1 July 2007.

57 Eric Hansen, “Hot Peaks”, OnEart h, fall 2002, p. 8.

58 Leslie Josephus, “Global Warming Threatens Double-Trouble for Peru: Shrinking Glaciers and a Water Shortage”, Associated Press , 12 February 2007; Citation World Atlas (Union NJ: Hammond World Atlas Cor poration, 2004); Thompson, “Receding Glaciers”, op. cit. note 56.

59 Josephus, op. cit. note 58; U. N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database – см.: esa.un.org/ unpp, материал обновлен 11 марта 2009 г.

60 U. N. Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2007 Wall Chart – см.: www.un.org/esa/population, материал обновлен в июне 2008 г.; James Painter, “Peru’s Alarming Water Truth”, BBC News , 12 March 2007.

61 Giles Tremlett, “Climate Change Lays Waste to Spain’s Glaciers”, Guardian (London), 23 February 2009.

62 Anne Minard, “No More Glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020?” National Geographic News , 2 February 2009.

63 Michael Kiparsky and Peter Gleick, Climate Change and California Water Resources: A Survey and Summary of the Literature (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute, 2003); Timothy Cavagnaro et al., Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions for California Agricultural Landscapes (Sacramento, CA: California Climate Change Center, 2006).

64 Michael J. Scott et al., “Climate Change and Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture – A Case Study of the Yakima River” – в книге: UCOWR/ NIWR Conference, Water Allocation: Economics and the Environment (Carbondale, IL: Universities Council on Water Resources, 2004); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, “Global Warming to Squeeze Western Montains Dry by 2050”, press release (Richland, WA: 16 February 2004).

65 John E. Sheeby, International Rice Research Institute, сообщение по электронной почте, посланное Джанет Ларсен из Earth Policy Institute 1 октября 2002 г.; Pedro Sanchez, “The Climate Change-Soil Fertility-Food Security Nexus”, выступление на конференции “Устойчивая продовольственная безопасность для всех к 2020 г.”, Бонн, Германия 4–6 сентября 2002 г.

66 K. S. Kavi Kumar and Jyoti Parikh, “Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture”, International Review for Environmental Strategies , vol. 2, No. 2 (2001), pp. 277–293; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 59.

67 Mohan К. Wali et al., “Assessing Terrestrial Ecosystem Sustainability”, Nature & Resources , October-December 1999, pp. 21–33.

68 Shaоbing Peng et al., “Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , “Warmer Evening Temperatures Lower Rice Yields”, press release (Washington, DC: 29 June 2004).

69 Sheehy, op. cit. note 65; Sanchez, op. cit. note 65.

70 Tim P. Barnett et al., “Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States”, Science , vol. 319 (22 February 2008); T. M. Shanahan et al., “Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa”, Scienc e, vol. 324 (17 April 2009); Marshall B. Burke, David B. Lobell, and Luigi Guarino, “Shifts in African Crop Climates by 2050, and the Implications for Crop Improvement and Genetic Resources Conservation”, Global Environmental Change , в печати.

71 U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 59; Burke, Lobell, and Guarino, op. cit. note 70; Marlowe Hood, “Warming May Outstrip Africa’s Ability to Feed Itself: Study”, Agence France-Presse , 17 June 2009.

72 IEA, op. cit. note 6, pp. 221, 225; DOE, EIA, “How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil?” – см.: tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm, материал обновлен 23 апреля 2009 г.; U. S. Bureau of the Census, “Most of Us Still Drive to Work Alone – Public Transportation Commuters Concentrated in a Handful of Large Cities”, press release (Washington DC: 13 June 2007); Peter Whorinskey, “GM to Build Small Car in U. S.”, Washington Post , 29 May 2009.

73 Ayesha Rascoe, “U.S. Oil Demand in 2008 Hit a 10-year Low: Government”, Reuters , 7 July 2009; DOE, EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (Washington DC: 27 February 2009), pp. 22; Ayesha Rascoe, “U. S. Public Transit 2008 Ridership Highest in 52 years”, Reuters, 9 March 2009.

74 Campbell, op. cit. note 5; Michael T. Klare, “Entering the Tough Oil Era”, TomDispatch.com , 16 August 2007.

75 Michael T. Klare, “The Energy Crunch to Come”, TomDispatch.com , 22 March 2005; Jad Mouawad, “Big Oil’s Burden of Too Much Cash”, New York Times , 12 February 2005; Mark Williams, “The End of Oil?”, Technology Review , February 2005; John Vidal, “The End of Oil Is Closer Than You Think”, Guardian (London), 21 April 2005.

76 James Pincero, “If We Really Have the Oil”, Bloomberg Wealth Manager , September 2002, p. 45; Klare, op. cit. note 75; Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist, “Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production”, National Resources Research , vol. 12, No. 4 (December 2003), p. 222; Walter Youngquist, GeoDestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources over Nations and Individuals (Portland: National Book Company, 1997); A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, “World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006–07”, Oil and Gas Journal , 26 April 2004, pp. 18–20.

77 Fredrick Robelius, Giant Oil Fields – The Highway to Oil (Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University Press, 9 March 2007), pp. 81–84; Petrobras Brazil, “Production Goes on Stream in Tupi: Year I of a New Era” – см.: www2.petrobras.com.br/Petrobras/ingles/area_tupi.asp, просмотрено 17 июня 2009 г.

78 Guy Chazan and Neil King Jr., “Russian Oil Slump Stirs Supply Jitters”, Wall Street Journal , 15 April 2008; данные о снижении добычи нефти в России см. в: IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: May 2009).

79 Vidal, op. cit. note 75.

80 Gargi Chakrabarry, “Shale’s New Hope”, Rocky Mountain News , 18 October 2004; Walter Youngquist, “Alterantive Energy Sources” – в книге: Lee C. Gerhard, Patrick Leahy, and Victor Yannacone, eds., Sustainability of Energy and Water through the 21st Century , Proceedings of the Arbor Day Farm Conference, 8–11 October 2000 (Lawrence, KS: Kansas Geological Survey, 2002), p. 65.

81 Rober Collier, “Canadian Oil Sands: Vast Reserves Second to Saudi Arabia Will Keep America Moving, But at a Steep Environmental Cost”, San Francisco Chronicle , 22 May 2005; Alberta Department of Energy, Alberta’s Oil Sands, 2008 (Edmonton, Alberta: June 2009); BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 (London: June 2009) p. 11; Robin Pagnamenta, “Canadian Oil-Sand Mines Stuck as Crude Price Plummets”, The Times (London), 5 January 2009; Jad Mouawad, “Big Oil Projects Out in Jeopardy by Fall in Prices”, New York Times , 16 December 2008.

82 Sheila McNulty, “Tar Sands Refinery Projects Face a Sticky Future”, Financial Times , 5 January 2009; Collier, op. cit note 81; Alfred J. Cavallo, “Oil: Caveat Empty”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , vol. 61, No. 3 (May/ June 2005), pp. 16–18; Richard Heinberg, “The End of the Oil Age”, Earth Island Journal , vol. 18, No. 3 (fall 2003).

83 IEA, op. cit. note, p. 507.

84 World Health Organization, “Air Pollution”, Fact Sheet 187 (Geneva: revised September 2000); Janet Larsen, “Coal Takes Heavy Human Toll: Some 25,100 U. S. Deaths from Coal Use Largely Preventable”, Eco-Economy Update (Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 24 August 2004).

85 U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Science and Technology, “National Listing of Fish Advisories: 2005–06 National Listing”, fact sheet (Washington, DC: July 2007).

86 Jonathan Watts, “Beijing Blames Pollutants for Rise in Killer Cancers”, Guardian (London), 22 May 2007.

87 Barbara Demick, “China Blames Pollution for Surge in Birth Defects”, Los Angeles Times , 2 February 2009; Steven Mufson, “Asian Nations Could Outspace U.S. in Developing Clean Energy”, Washington Post , 16 July 2009.

88 Keith Bradsher, “Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert”, New York Times , 2 July 2009.

89 IEA, op. cit. note 6, p. 507.

90 Paul Hawken, Commencement Address to the Class of 2009, University of Portland, Portland, OR, 3 May 2009.

К ГЛАВЕ 4

1 Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels, 2009), pp. 3, 56; Erik Shuster, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants (Pittsburgh, PA: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory, January 2009); “Nuclear Dips in 2008”, World Nuclear News , 29 May 2009; один мегаватт установленной мощности, генерирующей энергию с помощью ветра, вырабатывает достаточно электроэнергии для снабжения 300 домов – см.: American Wind Energy Association “U.S. Wind Energy Installations Reach New Milestone” (Washington, DC, 14 August 2006), press release; число домов вычислено на основе данных о среднем размере домашнего хозяйства в США, полученных из публикации: U.S. Census Bureau “2005 – 2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates – Data Profile Highlights” – см.: factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts (просмотрено 9 апреля 2009 г.) и данным о населении из электронной базы данных того же Бюро State and Country QuickFacts, обновленной 20 февраля 2009 г. – см.: quickfacts.census.gov.