Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

85 USDA, op. cit. note 2; F. O. Licht, “World Fuel Ethanol Production”, op. cit. note 77, p. 365.

86 “Scientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification”, UN News Service , 21 June 2006.

87 Alan Cowell, “Migrants Found off Italy Boat Piled with Dead”, International Herald Tribune , 21 October 2003.

88 Там же.

89 Roberta Russo, “UNHCR Steps up Efforts to Stem Gulf of Aden Crossings As Numbers Mount”, News Stories (Geneva: U. N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 22 May 2009); Helene Caux and William Spindler, “Dozens Dead or Missing in Gulf of Aden; Boat People Figures Rise”, News Stories (Geneva, UNHCR, 4 November 2008).

90 Miranda Leitsinger, “African Migrants Die an Ocean Away”, Washington Post , 2 June 2006; Mar Roman, “A New Record for African Risking Boat Route to Europe”, Washington Post , 4 September 2006.

91 Ginger Thompson, «Mexico Worries About Its Own Southern Border”, New York Times , 18 June 2006; Instituto Nacional de Migracioˆn, Estadisticas Migratorias , электронная база данных – см.: www.inami.gob.mx, updated 30 April 2009.

92 “Mexico’s Immig ration Problem: The K amik azes of Pover ty, The Economist , 31 January 2004.

93 Frank Bruni, “Off Sicily, Tide of Bodies Roils Immigrant Debate”, New York Times , 23 September 2002; Flora Botsford, “Spain Recovers Drowned Migrants”, BBC News , 25 April 2002; “Boat Sinks Off Coast of Turkey: One Survivor and 7 Bodies Found”, Agence France-Presse , 22 December 2003; Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, “Trade Brings Riches, But Not to Mexico’s Poor”, Washington Post , 22 March 2003; Robert McLeman and Barry Smit, “Climate Change, Migration and Security”, Commentary No. 86 (Ottawa: Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 2 March 2004); количество покинутых сельских районов взято из электронной базы данных: FAO, PopSTAT – см.: faostat.fao.org/site/550/default.aspx, updated February 2009; Coalicioˆn de Derechos Humanos, “Arizona Recovered Bodies” – см.: www.derechoshumanosaz.net, updated 15 June 2009.

94 Данные о заброшенных деревнях в Индии взяты из: Shah et al., op. cit. note 49; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8.

95 Послание, отправленное Ваном автору по электронной почте: Wang, op. cit. note 29; Wang, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, op. cit. note 29.

96 Souhail Karam, “Drought-Hit North Africa Seen Hunting for Grains”, Reuters , 15 July 2005; African Development Bank and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, African Economic Outlook 2007 (Tunis and Paris: 2007), p. 386.

97 Iranian News Agency, op. cit. note 25; Government of Nigeria, op. cit. note 64.

98 Данные по Бразилии и Мексике взяты из доклада: Heitor Matallo, “General Approach to the Costs of Desertification”, presentation at the International Workshop on the Cost of Inaction and Opportunities for Investment in Arid, Semi-Arid and Dry Sub-Humid Areas”, Rome, 4–5 December 2006; см. также таблицу 5–2 в работе: Brown, op. cit. note 5, pp. 86–87.

99 Gordon McCranahan, Deborah Balk, and Bridget Anderson, “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones”, Environment and Urbanization , vol. 18, No. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17–37; International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), “Climate Change: Study Maps Those at Greatest Risk from Cyclones and Rising Seas”, press release (London: 28 March 2007).

К ГЛАВЕ 3

1 J. Hansen, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “Global Temperature Anomalies in 0.1 C” – см.: data.giess.nasa.gov/gistemp/ tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt, updated June 2009; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 13, 15.

2 IPCC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 5–7; U. N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007), p. 103; W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contribution to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise”, Science , vol. 321 (5 September 2008), pp. 1340–1343; “Sea Levels Will Rise 1.5 Meters by 2100”, NewScientist.com 16 April 2008; Stefan Rahmstorf, “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Sea-Level Rise”, Science , vol. 315 (19 January 2007), pp. 368–370.

3 IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 241–245.

4 International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report (Paris: August 2001) – эта публикация содержит данные о нефти, продуктах из сжиженного природного газа и прибылях от переработки; данные за прошлые годы взяты из публикации: U. S. Department of Defense, Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics (Washington, DC: 1945), эти данные воспроизведены в статье: Christopher Flavin and Seth Dunn, «Reinventing the Energy System”, опубликованной в книге: Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Hilary French, State of the World 1999 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), p. 25; данные о потреблении угля взяты из статьи: Seth Dunn, “Coal Use Continues Rebound”, опубликованной в книге: Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1998 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1998), pp. 52–53.

5 IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: June 2009); послание, отправленное Колином Дж. Кэмпбеллом Джигнашу Рана по электронной почте, Earth Policy Institute, 18 June 2009.

6 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), p. 507.

7 Hansen, op. cit. note 1.

8 IPCC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 27, 135, 141, 542.

9 Данные о концентрациях, наблюдавшихся в 2008 г., взяты из работы: Pieter Tans, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa”, NOAA/ESRL – см.: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends, просмотрено автором 7 апреля 2009 г.; R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes: 1850–2005” – в книге: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, TRENDS: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008); Josep G. Canadell et al., “Contributions to Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity, and Efficiency of Natural Sinks”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , vol. 104, No. 47 (20 November, 2007), pp. 18, 866–870.

10 Sarah Simpson, “The Arctic Thaw Could Make Global Warming Worse”, Scientific American: Earth 3.0 , June 2009; Global Carbon Project, “Supersize Deposits of Frozen Carbon Threat to Climate Change”, press release (Canberra, Australia: 1 July 2009).

11 Veerabhadran Ramanathan et al., Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia (Nairobi: UNEP, 2008), pp. 2, 10.

12 Там же, pp. 393–396; Yun Qian et al., “Effects of Soot-Induced Snow Albedo Change on Snowpack and Hydrological Cycle in Western United States Based on Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry and Regional Climate Simulations”, Journal of Geophysical Research , vol. 114, issue D3 (14 February 2009); Jane Qiu, “The Third Pole”, Nature , vol. 454 (24 July 2008, pp. 393–396); Frances C. Moore, “Climate Change and Air Pollution: Exploring the Synergies and Potential for Mitigation in Industrializing Countries”, Sustainability , vol. 1 No. 1 (24 March 2009), pp. 43–54.

13 Elizabeth Rosenthal, “Third-World Soot Stove is Target in Climate Fight”, New York Times , 16 April 2009.

14 IPCC, op. cit, note 1, pp. 13, 15; Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 22–23.

15 A. P. Sokolov et al., “Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters”, Journal of Climate , в печати.

16 International Alliance of Research Universities, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions , Synthesis Report from International Scientific Congress (Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen, 2009), pp. 18–19.

17 “Awful Weather We’re Having”, The Economist , 2 October 2004; Richard Milne, “Hurricanes Cost Munich Re Reinsurance”, Financial Times , 6 November 2004.

18 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution , электронная база данных – см.: www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, обновлено 11 июня 2007 г.; Janet Larsen, «Record Heat Wave in Europe Takes 35,000 Lives”, Eco-Economy Update (Washinghton, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 9 October 2003); USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Crop Production”, news release (Washington, DC: 12 August 2005).

19 Janet Larsen, “Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003”, Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 26 July 2006); National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2004).

20 National Center for Atmospheric Research and UCAR Office of Programs, “Drought’s Growing Reach: NCAR Study Points to Global Warming as Key Factor”, press release (Boulder, CO: 10 January 2005); Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, and Taotao Qian, “A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming”, Journal of Hydrometeorology , vol. 5 (December 2004), pp. 1, 117–130.

21 Susan Solomon et al., “Irreversible Climate Change Due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , vol. 106, No. 6 (10 February 2009), pp. 1, 704–709.

22 Donald McKenzie et al., “Irreversible Climate Change, Wildfire, and Conservation:, Conservation Biology , vol. 18, No. 4 (August 2004), pp. 890–902.

23 Camile Parmesan and Hector Galbraith, Observed Impacts of Global Climate Change in the U.S. (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2004); DeNeen L. Brown, “Signs of Thaw in a Desert of Snow”, Washington Post , 28 May 2002.

24 Patty Glick, Fish Out of Water: A Guide to Global Warming and Pacific Northwest Rivers (Seattle, WA: National Wildlife Federation, March 2005); Elizabeth Gillespie, “Global Warming May Be Making Rivers Too Hot: Cold-Water Fish Will Struggle, Report Says”, Seattle Post-Intelligencer , 24 March 2005.

25 Douglas B. Inkley et al., Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America (Betesda, MD: The Wildlife Society, December 2004); J. R. Pegg, “Global Warming Disrupting North American Wildlife”, Environment News Services 16 December 2004.

26 UNEP, op. cit. note 2; Gordon McCranahan et al., “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones”, Environment and Urbanization , vol. 18, No. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17–37.

27 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), Impacts of a Warming Arctic (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2004); “Rapid Arctic Warming Brings Sea Level Rise, Extinctions”, Environment News Service , 8 November, 2004.

28 J. R. Pegg, “The Earth is Melting, Arctic Native Leader Warns”, Environment News Service , 16 September 2004; ACIA, op. cit note 27, p. 8.

29 ACIA, op. cit. note 27; Steven C. Amstrup, Bruce G. Marcot, and David C. Douglas, Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the 21st Century (Reston, VA: U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), 2007), p. 2.

30 Julienne Stroeve et al., “Arctic Sea Decline: Faster than Forecast”, Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 34 (May 2007); National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), “Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows”, press release (Boulder, CO: 1 October 2007); R. Kwok et al., “Thinning and Volume Loss of the Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Cover: 2003–2008”, Journal of Geophysical Research , vol. 114 (7 July 2009).

31 David Adam, “Meltdown Fear as Arctic Ice Cover Falls to Record Winter Low”, Guardian (London), 15 May 2006; Kevin Rollason, “Arctic to See First Ice-Free Summer in 2015”, Canwest News Service (Canada), 6 December 2008; Винсент процитирован в работе: David Ljunggren, “Arctic Summer Ice Could Vanish by 2013: Expert”, Reuters , 5 March 2009: Струве процитирован в статье: “Arctic Ice Retreating 30 Years Ahead of Projections”, Environment News Service , 30 April 2007.

32 NSIDC, “Processes: Thermodynamics: Albedo” – см.: nsdic.org/seaice/ processe/albedo.html; просмотрено автором 26 июля 2007 г.

33 UNEP, op. cit., note 2.

34 J. L. Chen, C. R. Wilson, and D. D. Tapley, “Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet”, Science , vol. 313 (29 September 2006), pp. 1, 958–960; Isabella Velicogna and John Wahr, “Acceleration of Greenland Ice Mass Loss in Spring 2004”, Nature , vol. 443 (21 September 2006), pp. 329–331; S. B. Luthke et al., “Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss from Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations”, Science , vol. 314 (24 November 2006), pp. 1, 286–289; “Gravity Measurements Confirm Greenland’s Glaciers Precipitous Meltdown”, Scientific American , 19 October 2006.

35 Paul Brown, “Melting Ice Cap Triggering Earthquakes”, Guardian (London), 8 September 2007; Robert W. Corell, discussion with Jignasha Rana, Earth Policy Institute, 15 July 2009.