Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

2 “Clipper and BP to JV on 5,050-MW South Dakota Project”, Wind Energy Weekly , vol. 27, no 1300 (1 August 2008); утверждение о том, что одного мегаватта ветрогенерируемой энергии достаточно для 300 домов, взято из AWEA”,U.S. Wind Energy Installations Reach New Milestone”, press release (Washington, DC: 14 August 2006); средний размер семьи из U.S. Census Bureau”, 2005 – 2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates – Data Profile Highlights”, см.: factfinder. census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts, просмотрено автором 9 апреля 2009, численность населения из Census Bureau, op. cit. note 1; экспорт электричества из EER, op. cit. note 1; ITC Holdings Corp., “ITC Holdings Corp. Unveils Green Power Express”, press release (Novi, MI: 9 February 2009); TransCanada, “TransCanada’s Zephyr and Chinook Power Transmission Line”, project brochure (Calgary, Alberta: April 2009); Quanta Technology, LLC, Final Report on the Southwest Power Pool (SPP)Updated EHV Overlay Study (Raleigh, NC: 3 March 2008), pp. 11 – 17; “A Window of North Atlantic opportunity”, Windpower Monthly, October 2008, pp. 21 – 22.

3 Mark Leftly, “Middle East to Fund Scotland’s £5bn Power Grid”, Independent (London), 10 August 2008; соотношение валют с www.bloomberg. com/invest/calculators/currency.html, 9 April 2009; “World Electricity Installed Capacity by Type (Million Kilowatts), January 1, 2006”, в DOE, EIA, “International Energy Annual 2006 – World Electricity Data”, см.: www.eia.doe.gov/iea/elec.html, материал обновлен 8 декабря 2008.

4 “Algeria aims to Export Power – Solar Power”, Associated Press . 11 August 2007; William Maclean, “Algeria Plans Solar Power Cable to Germany – Paper”, Reuters , 15 November 2007.

5 “World Electricity Installed Capacity by Type (Million Kilowatts)”, в DOE, op. cit. note 3; David O’Byrne, “Electricity Generation: Fair Winds Blow for a Clean Alternative,” Financial Times , 10 June 2008; Jan Dodd, “Strong Winds and High Prices in Turkey”, Windpower Monthly , September 2008; информация о выборе проектов и выдаче разрешений из беседы автора с Dr. Hilmi Güler, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 20 июня 2008.

6 Peter Janssen, “The Too Slow Flow: Why Indonesia Could Get All Its Power from Volcanoes – But Doesn’t”, Newsweek , 20 September 2004; “Geothermal Power Projects to Cost $US19.8 Bln. Official Says”, ANTARA News (Jakarta), 9 July 2008; Gita Wirjawan, “The Oil Cycle: The Wheels are Turning Again”, Jakarta Post , 12 March 2009.

7 D. L. Elliott, L. L. Wendell, and G. L. Gower, An Assessment of the Available Windy Land Area and Wind Energy Potential in the Contiguous United States (Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. 1991); Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, “The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of U.S. Winds and Wind Power at 80 m Derived from Measurements”, Journal of Geophysical Research , vol. 108 (13 May 2003); данные по Китаю из C. L. Archer and M. Z. Jacobson, “Evaluation of Global Windpower”, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 110 (30 June 2005), и из Jean Hu et al., “Wind: The Future is Now”, Renewable Energy World , July-August, p. 212; расчет по Индонезии на основе потенциала в 27 000 мегаватт из Alimin Ginting, Indonesia Geothermal Association, “Geothermal Energy: Global Status, Market and Challenge for Developing in Indonesia”, presentation to the Thematic Panel Discussion of LEAD International Training Session on Leadership and Climate Change, 26 November – 1 December 2007, Jakarta-Bandung, Indonesia, и на International Energy Agency (IEA), IEA Statistics, – электронная база данных – см.: www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/index.asp, просмотрено автором 1 мая 2009 г..

8 Lester R. Brown, “The Flawed Economics of Nuclear Power”, Plan B Update (Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 28 October 2008).

9 International Telecommunication Union, “Key Global Telecom Indicators for the World Telecommunication Service Sector”, см.: www.itu.int/ ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/KeyTelecom99.htm, материал обновлен 10 марта 2009; Molly O. Sheehan, “Mobile Phone Use Booms”, в Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2002), p. 85.

10 “Historical USA PC Sales” and “Historical Worldwide PC Sales”, tables in Computer Industry Almanac Inc., Worldwide PC Market (Arlington Heights, IL: September 2008); European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics Until 2013 (Brussels: April 2009), pp. 3 – 4; Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels: 2009), p. 10.

11 Archer and Jacobson, “Evaluation of Global Windpower”, op. cit. note 7; Hu et al., op. cit. note 7.

12 Elliott, Wendell, and Gower, op. cit. note 7; Archer and Jacobson, “The Spatial and Temporal Distributions of U.S. Winds”, op. cit. note 7; шельфовый потенциал из данных NREL, приведенных в U.S. Minerals Management Service, Survey of Available Data on OCS Resources and Identification of Data Gaps, Report to the Secretary, U.S. Department of the Interior (Washington, DC: April 2009), pp. 1–11 to 1–14.

13 European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), “Seas of Change: Offshore Wind Energy”, fact sheet (Brussels: February 2009); Garrad Hassan and Partners, Sea Wind Europe (London: Greenpeace, March 2004).

14 GWEC, op. cit. note 10, pp. 3, 10, 24.

15 Данные по Дании из GWEC, “Interactive WorldMap”, см.: www.gwec. net/index.php?id=126, просмотрено автором 29 мая 2009 г.; данные по Германии из GWEC, op. cit. note 10, pp. 34–35.

16 Flemming Hansen, “Denmark to Increase Wind Power to 50% by 2025, Mostly Offshore”, Renewable Energy Access , 5 December 2006.

17 GWEC, op. cit. note 10, pp. 33, 48–49.

18 AWEA, “U.S. Wind Energy Industry Installs Over 2,800 MW in First Quarter”, press release (28 April 2009); AWEA, U.S. Wind Energy Projects, op. cit. note 1; AWEA and Solar Energy Industries Association, Green Power Superhighways: Building a Path to America’s Clean Energy Future (Washington, DC: February 2009).

19 Southern California Edison, The Tehachapi Renewable Transmission Project: Greening the Grid (Los Angeles: March 2008); Paul Klein, Media Relations Group, Southern California Edison, discussion with Jonathan G. Dorn, Earth Policy Institute, 22 October 2007; “Clipper and BP to JV”, op. cit. not 2; Carl Levesque, “Super-Size It: Mega-Wind Farm Proposals Prolifirate”, Wind Energy Weekly, vol. 27, no. 1303 (22 August 2008).

20 “Maine Legislature Unanimously Approves Wind Recommendations”, Wind Energy Weekly , vol. 27, no 1286 (1 August 2008); данные о населении из Census Bureau, op. cit. note 1; запущенные мощности из AWEA, U.S. Wind Energy Projects , op. cit. note 1; данные по Нью-Йорку взяты из работы: Matthew L. Wald, “Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits”, New York Times , 27 August 2008; “Oregon Siting Council Green-Lights 909-MW Wind Farm”, Wind Energy Weekly , vol. 27, no. 1300 (1 August 2008).

21 Cape Wind, “Project at a Glance”, см.: www.capewind.org/article24. htm, просмотрено автором 14 апреля 2009 г.; данные по Род-Айленду из “Deepwater to Start Building R.I. Wind Farm in 2010”, Reuters , 8 January 2009; “LIPA & Con Edison Eye Offshore Wind Power”, Renewable Energy World , 25 March 2009; “Garden State Offshore Energy Wins Bid for Offshore Wind Farm”, Renewable Energy World , 6 October 2008; “Bluewater Wind Signs Contract for Sale of Offshore Wind Power”, Renewable Energy World , 24 June 2008; 1 мегаватта достаточно для обеспечения 300 семей – из источников, приведенных в ссылке 2.

22 Willett Kempton et al., “Large CO2 Reduction Via Offshore Wind Power Matched to Inherent Storage in Energy End-Uses”, Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 34 (24 January 2007); Steve Gelsi, “Green-Collar Pioneers Eye Offshore Wind Riches”, MarketWatch, 8 October 2008; Walt Musial “Deepwater Offshore Wind Technology Research Requirements”, poster prepared for AWEA WindPower 2005 Conference, Denver, CO, 12–18 May 2005.

23 U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database , см.: esa.un.org/unpp, материал обновлен 11 марта 2009; Archer and Jacobson, “Evaluation of Global Windpower”, op. cit. note 7; GWEC, op. cit. note 10, p. 22; “A Window of North Atlantic Opportunity”, op. cit. note 2.

24 GWEC, op. cit. note 10, pp. 3, 24–27; Liming Qiao, Policy Director, GWEC, в электронном письме к J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 29 April 2009.

25 Турбина мощностью 2 мегаватта, действующая 36% времени, вырабатывает в год 6,3 миллиона киловатт/часов; данные о мощности взяты из публикации: DOE, NREL, op. cit. note 1; полная стоимость электричества из DOE, Wholesale Market Data, – электронная база данных – см.: www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity, материал обновлен 22 апреля 2009; Renewable Fuels Association, Homegrown for the Homeland: Ethanol Industry Outlook 2005 (Washington, DC: 2005); кукурузы на акр и этанола на бушель взято усредненно из Allen Baker et al., “Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market”, Amber Waves , vol. 4, no. 2 (April 2006), pp. 32, 34; консервативный прогноз цены этанола в 2 доллара за галлон основан на F.O. Licht, “Biofuels”, World Ethanol and Biofuels Report , vol. 7, no. 15 (14 April 2009), p. 318.

26 Выплаты за использование земли приведены по оценкам автора на основании Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), “Farming the Wind: Wind Power and Agriculture”, fact sheet (Cambridge, MA: 2003).

27 Laurie Jodziewicz, AWEA, электронное письмо автору, 16 October 2007; GWEC and Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006 (Brussels: 2006).

28 GWEC, op. cit. note 10, pp. 9–10.

29 Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008), pp. 239–42; “Trillions in Spending Needed to Meet Global Oil and Gas Demand, Analysis Shows,” International Herald Tribune , 15 October 2007.

30 David L. Lewis, “They May Save Our Honor, Our Hopes – and Our Necks”, Michigan History , September/October 1993; Harry Braun, The Phoenix Project: Shifting from Oil to Hydrogen with Wartime Speed , prepared for the Renewable Hydrogen Roundtable, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 10–11 April 2003, pp. 3–4; Kathy barks Hoffman, “GM Plant Shutdowns Further Hurt Michigan Budget”, Associated Press, 23 April 2009.

31 EWEA, “Wind Now Leads EU Power Sector”, press release (Brussels: 2 February 2009); Erik Shuster, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants (Pittsburgh, PA: DOE, National Energy Technology Laboratory, January 2009); “Nuclear Dips in 2008”, World Nuclear News , 29 May 2009; GWEC, op. cit. note 10, pp. 10, 56–57.

32 EPIA, op. cit. note 10, pp. 3–4.

33 Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media, “25th Annual Data Collection Results: PV Production Explodes in 2008”, PVNews , vol. 28, No. 4 (April 2009), pp. 15–18.

34 EIA, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006); “Power to the Poor”, The Economist , 10 February 2001, pp. 21–23.

35 Sybille de La Hamaide, “Bangladesh Seeks World Bank Loan for Solar Power”, Reuters , 26 April 2007.

36 “Solar Loans Light Up Rural India”, BBC News , 29 April 2007.

37 Данные о выбросах, включая выбросы от сожжения керосина и других видов топлива, используемых для освещения, взяты из публикаций: IEA, Light’s Labour’s Lost: Policies for Energy-Efficient Lighting (Paris: 2006), pp. 201–202; DOE, EIA, International Petroleum Monthly – см.: www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html, материал обновлен 13 апреля 2009 г.

38 “PV Costs Set to Plunge for 2009/10”, Renewable Energy World , 23 December 2008; “PV Costs Down Significantly from 1998–2007”, Renewable Energy World, 23 February 2009; Christoph Podewils, “As Cheap as Brown Coal: By 2010, a kWh of PV Electricity in Spain Will Cost Around 9 ¢ to Produce”, PHOTON International , April 2007.

39 Ines Rutschmann, “A Country of Megawatt Parks”, PHOTON International (September 2008), pp. 32–39; Cleantech America, Inc., “KRCD Enters Long Term, Zero Emission Solar Power Plan”, press release (San Francisco, CA: 6 July 2007); Ehud Zion Waldoks, “IEC Approves Arava Company’s Proposal for World's Largest Photovoltaic Field ”, The Jerusalem Post , 15 February 2009.

40 Matthew L. Wald, “Two Large Solar Plants Planned in California”, New York Times , 15 August 2008.

41 China Technology Development Group Corporation, “CTDC to Build 30MW On-Grid Solar Power Station in Qaidam Basin”, press release (Hong Kong: 2 January 2009); EPIA, op. cit. note 10, p. 10.

42 Svetlana Kovalyova, “Taly’s Solar Power Flourishes with State Help”, Reuters , 12 March 2009; EPIA, op. cit. note 10, p. 8; “Chapter 8.8: California Solar Initiative” – in California State Legislature, Statutes 2006 , SB1, Chapter 132 (Sacramento, CA: 21 August 2006); California Public Utilities Commission, California Solar Initiative Program Handbook (San Francisco, CA: January 2009), p. 91; Sara Parker, “Maryland Expands RPS: 1,500 MW Solar by 2022”, Renewable Energy Access , 12 April 2007; New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program, “FAQ: NJ Solar Financing Program”, fact sheet (Newark, NJ: New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, 12 September 2007).