Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

2 Поведение двуокиси углерода смоделировано на основе данных о продуктах горения ископаемых видов топлива, приведенных в работе: Tom Boden, Gregg Marland, “Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751 – 06” и “Preliminary 2006 – 2007 Global and National Estimates by Extrapolation”, обе работы опубликованы в сборнике: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), 2009), а также на основе данных об изменении выбросов в зависимости от изменения характера землепользования, приведенных в статье R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes” – см.: CDIAC, Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global change (Oak Ridge, TN: ORNL, 2008), ниспадающая кривая приведена в J. Hansen и др., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol. 7 (2007), pp. 2, 287 – 312; данные о текущей концентрации СО2 в атмосфере взяты из статьи: Pieter Tans, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa”, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, – см.: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends просмотрена автором 7 апреля 2009.

3 James Hansen et al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” Open Atmospheric Science Journa l, vol. 2 (15 October 2008), pp. 217 – 231.

4 Lester R. Brown, “Creating New Jobs, Cutting Carbon Emissions, and Reducing Oil Imports by Investing in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency”, Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 11 December 2008).

5 S. Pacala, R. Socolow, “Stabilizing Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies”, Science , vol. 305 (13 August 2004), pp. 968–972.

6 Так же.

7 International Alliance of Research Universities , Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions , Synthesis Report from International Scientific Congress (Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen, 2009).

8 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and DOE, “Energy Star Change a Light, Change the World”, fact sheet (Washington DC: 23 April 2007); Larry Kinney, Lighting Systems in Southwestern Homes: Problems and Opportunities, prepared for DOE Building America Program through the Midwest Research Institute, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (Boulder, CO: Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, June 2005), pp. 4 – 5.

9 Alice McKeown, “Strong growth in compact Fluorescent Bulbs Reduces Electricity Demand”, Vital Signs Online (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 27 October 2008); “Alliance Calls for Only Energy-Efficient Lighting in U.S. Market by 2016, Joins Coalition Dedicated to Achieving Goal”, press release (Washington, DC: Alliance to Save Energy, 14 March 2007); DOE, Big Results, Bigger Potential: CFL Market Profile (Washington, DC: Energy Star, March 2009).

10 Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources, “World First! Australia Slashes Greenhouse Gases from Inefficient Lighting”, press release (Canberra, Australia: 20 February 2007); Rob Gillies, “Canada Announces Greenhouse Gas Targets”, Associated Press , 25 April 2007; European Parliament, “Incandescent Light Bulbs: Environment Committee Backs Phase-Out Plan”, press release (Brussels: 17 February 2009).

11 International Energy Agency (IEA), Light’s Labour’s Lost: Policies for Energy-Efficient Lighting (Paris: 2006), p. 375; Deborah Zabarenko, “China to Switch to Energy-Efficient Lightbulbs”, Reuters , 3 October 2007; Greenpeace India, “India’s Light Bulb Phase Out: Setting a Smart Example”, press release (New Delhi: 25 February 2009).

12 Рейтинг розничных сетей согласно данным, взятым из публикаций: Deloitte, Feeling the Squeeze, Global Powers of Retailing 2009 (London: 2009); Walmart Stores Inc., “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fact Sheet” (Bentonville, AR: 2009); Hillary Osborne “Currys to Stop Selling Incandescent Bulbs”, Guardian (London), 13 March 2007.

13 CREE LED Lighting, “Ultra-Efficient Lighting” – cм.: www.creelighting. com/efficiency.htm, просмотрена автором 17 апреля 2009; Navigant Consulting Inc., Energy Savings Estimates of Light Emitting Diodes in Niche Lighting applications (Washington, DC: DOE, rev. October 2008); Anthony DePalma, “It Never Sleeps, But It’s Learned to Douse the Lights”, New York Ttimes , 11 December 2005; “Mayor Villaraigosa, President Clinton Light the Way to a Greener L.A.”, press release (Los Angeles, CA: Office of the Mayor, 16 February 2009).

14 “Smart LED Lightening Makes Parking Garages Greener, Safer”, Environment News Service, 13 January 2009.

15 Срок службы светодиодов взят из EPA and DOE, op. cit. note 8 и из “Company Profile: Expanding LED Possibilities at Samsung Electromechanics”, LEDs Magazine , April 2007.

16 IEA op. cit. note 11, pp. 25, 29, 38; CREE LED Lighting, op cit. note 13.

17 Экономия электроэнергии высчитана на основе данных, приведенных в: IEA, op. cit. note 11, pp. 25, 29 и в: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), p. 507; производство энергии электростанциями, работающим на угле, взято из расчета, что среднестатистическая электростанция вырабатывает 500 мегаватт и действует 72% времени, производя, таким образом, 3,15 миллиардов киловатт/часов электричества в год.

18 Steven Nadel, The Federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 and Its Implications for Energy Efficiency Program Efforts (Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 2005).

19 John M. Broder, “Obama Orders New Rules to Raise Energy Efficiency”, New York Times , 6 February 2009.

20 National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China Statistical Yearbook (Beijing, разные годы), письмо, отправленное Джесси Робинсу, Earth Policy Institute, Дэвидом Фридли, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), DOE, 4 июня 2009 г.

21 “Final Energy Consumption” in LBNL, China Energy Databook, v. 7.0 (Berkeley, CA: October 2008); NBS, “Electricity Balance Sheet” in China Statistical Yearbook 2008 – см.: www.stats.gov.cn/english, просмотрено автором 21 июля 2009 г.

22 U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database – см.: esa.un.org/unpp, обновлено 11 марта 2009 г.; Greenpeace, “Your Energy Savings” – см.: www.greenpeace. org/international/campaigns/climate-change/take_action/your-energy, просмотрено автором 28 мая 2009 г.

23 Marianne Haug et al., Cool Appliances: Policy Strategies for Energy Efficient Homes (Paris: IEA, 2003); Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Top Runner Program: Developing the World’s Best Energy-Efficient Appliances (Tokyo: 2008).

24 Haug et al. op. cit note 23; Alan K. Meier. A Worldwide Review of Standby Power Use in Homes (Berkeley, CA: LBNL, 2002).

25 Lloyd Harrington et al., Standby Energy: Building a Coherent International Policy Framework – Moving to the Next Level (Stockholm: European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, 2007).

26 Meier, op. cit, note 24.

27 Geoffrey Lean and Jonathan Owen, “Giant Plasma TVs Face Ban in Battle to Green Britain”, The Independent (London), 11 января 2009 г.; California Energy Commission, “Frequently Asked Questions – FAQs Energy Efficiency Standards for Televisions” см. www.energy.ca.gov/ appliances/tv_faqs.html, просмотрено автором 29 апреля 2009 г.

28 IEA op. cit. note 17, р. 507.

29 U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), “Green Building Facts” (Washington, DC: April, 2009).

30 Edward Mazria, “It’s the Architecture, Stupid! Who Really Holds the Key to Global Thermostat? The Answer Might Surprise You”, World and I May/June 2003; Clinton Foundation, “Energy Efficiency Building Retrofit Program,” fact sheet (New York, May 2007).

31 Davis Langdon, The Cost & Benefit of Achieving Green Buildings (Sydney:2007).

32 German Federal Ministry for the Enviroment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Heat from Renewable Energies: What Will the New Heat Act Achieve? (Berlin: July 2008); BMU, Consolidated Version of the Reasoning Behind the Act on the Promotion of Renewable Energies in the Heat Sector (Berlin: August 2008).

33 DOE, “Transforming the Way Americans Use Energy” – см.: energy.gov/ recovery/energy_efficiency.htm, просмотрена автором 9 апреля 2009; пресс-релиз DOE, “Secretaries Donovan and Chu Announce Partnership to Help Working Families Weatherize Their Homes” (Washington, DC: 27 February 2009).

34 USGBC, “About LEED”, fact sheet (Washington, DC: 2007).

35 USGBC, op. cit. note 29; USGBC, “LEED for New Construction” (Washington, DC: 2007).

36 USGBC, LEED 2009 for New Construction and Major Innovations, Version 3.0 (Washington, DC: April 2009).

37 Там же.

38 USGBC, op. cit. note 29.

39 NREL, The Philip Merrill Environmental Center, Chesapeake Bay Foundation: Highlighting High Performance (Golden, CO: April 2002).

40 “Toyota Seeks Gold for New Green Buildings”, GreenBiz.com , 23 April 2003; “The Green Stamp of Approval,” Business Week, 11 September 2006.

41 Nick Carey and Ilaina Jonas, “Green Buildings Need More Incentives in US,” Reuters, 15 February 2007; Alexander Durst, The Durst Organization, дискуссия с Джигнаша Рана, Earth Policy Institute, 2 июля 2009 г.

42 Carey and Jonas, op. cit. note 41.

43 Barnaby J. Feder, “Environmentally Concious Development”, New York Times, 25 August 2004.

44 World Green Business Council, “Established Green Building Councils” и “Emerging Green Building Councils”, – см.: www.worldgbc.org/green-building-councils, просмотрено автором 10 апреля 2009 г.; данные о площади сертифицированного пространства из письма Мари Коулмен, USGBC к Джигнаша Рана, Earth Policy Institute, отправленного 1 июня 2009 г.

45 USGBC, op. cit. note 34; “Clinton Unveils $5 Billion Green Makeover for Cities,” Environment News Service, 16 May 2007.

46 USGBC, op. cit. note 34; “Clinton Unveils $5 Billion Green Makeover for Cities,” op. cit. note 45; USGBC, “The Clinton Climate Initiative and the U.S. Green Building Council Expand Global Partnership,” press release (Washington, DC: 10 February 2009).

47 Clinton Foundation, “CCI Helps Retrofit Empire State Building”, press release (New York: 6 April 2009); Molly Miller, “Leading Example for Energy Efficiency,” press release (Boulder, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, April 2009).

48 Brad Heavner, Environment Maryland, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality, Energy and Commerce Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, DC, 17 July 2008.

49 Mazria, op. cit. note 30; см.: www.architecture2030.org.

50 Mazria, op. cit. note 30.

51 Там же.

52 Yuri Kageyama, “Toyota US Hybrid Sales Surpass Million Units,” Associated Press, 12 March 2009; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 30 March 2009).

53 Стоимость электрического эквивалента галлона бензина взята из статьи: Roger Duncan, “Plug-In Hybrids: Pollution-Free Transport on the Horizon”, Solar Today, May/June 2007, р. 46.

54 Chris Gaylord, “Electric Cars Around the Corner,” Christian Science Monitor, 16 March 2009; Micheline Maynard, “Toyota Plans to Leapfrog G.M. with a Plug-In,” New York Times, 12 January 2009; Norihiko Shirouzu, “Technology Levels Playing Field in Race to Market Electric Car”, Wall Street Journal, 12 January 2009.

55 Maynard, op. cit. note 54; General Motors, “Imagine: A Daily Commute Without Using a Drop of Gas,” – см.: www.chevrolet.com/electriccar, просмотрено автором 8 августа 2008 г.

56 Matthew Dolan и Joan Murphy, “Nissan, Ford Plan Electric Push Aided by U.S.; Demand is Uncertain,” Wall Street Journal, 24 June 2009; Think, “Think announces U.S. Factory Plans,” press release (Snarøya, Norway: 12 March 2009); CalCars, “How Carmakers are Responding to the Plug-In Hybrid Opportunity”, – см.: www.calcars.org/carmakers.html , просмотрено автором 3 июня 2009.

57 Michael Kintner-Meyer et al.., Impacts Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids – Part 1: Technical Analysis (Richland, WA: DOE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2006)

58 Steve Hamm, “the Electric Car Acid Test”, Business Week, 4 February 2008, pp. 42 – 46; Better Place, “Global Progress”, – см.: www.betterplace. com/global-progress, просмотрено автором 14 апреля 2009 г.

59 Hiroki Matsumoto, “The Shinkansen: Japan’s High Speed Railway”, testimony before the Subcommittee on railroads, Pipelines and Materials (Washington, DC: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 19 April 2007); Central Japan Railway Company, Annual Report 2008, – english.jr-central.co.jp/company/ir/annualreport/index.html, просмотрено автором 29 мая 2009 г.

60 Matsumoto, op. cit. note 59.

61 Там же.

62 Inaki Barron, “High Speed Rail: The Big Picture”, testimony before the Subcommittee on railroads, Pipelines and Materials (Washington, DC: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 19 April 2007); Railteam, “European High Speed Rail Operators Launch Railteam”, press release (Brussels: 2 July 2007); Bruce Crumley, “European Train Travel: Working on the Railroad”, Time, 28 May 2009.