Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

11 U.N. Environment Programme, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007); Lester R. Brown, “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India”, Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 20 March 2008); USDA, op. cit. note 6.

12 W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise”, Science , vol. 321 (5 September 2008), pp. 1, 340–343; James Hansen, “Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise”, Environmental Research Letters , vol. 2 (24 May 2007); Environmental Change and Forced Scenarios Project, “Preliminary Finds from the EACH-FOR Project on Environmentally Induced Migration” (September 2008), p. 16; U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2007/2008 (New York: 2007), p. 100; World Bank, World Development Report 1999/2000 (New York: Oxford University Press, September 1999); USDA, op. cit. note 6; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.

13 FAO, FISHSTAT Plus , electronic database – см. www.fao.org, updated February 2009.

14 Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, сообщение, отправленное автору 4 апреля 2004 г.; Wang Tao, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminar on desertification, held in Lanzhou, China, May 2002; “Scientists Meeting in Tunes Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification”, UN News Service , 21 June 2006.

15 Noel Gollehon and William Quinby, “Irrigation in the American West: Area, Water and Economic Activity”, Water Resources Development , vol. 16, No, 2 (2002), pp. 187–195; Sandra Postel, Last Oasis (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1997), p. 137: R. Srinivasan, “The Politics of Water”, Info Change Agenda , issue 3 (Octobert 2005); Water Strategist, various issues – см.: www.waterstrategist.com; “China Politics: Growing Tensions Over Scarce Water”, The Economist , 21 June 2004.

16 USDA, op. cit. note 6; данные за период до 1960 г. взяты из: USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2001, CD-ROM (Washington, DC: 2001).

17 USDA, op. cit note 6; данные за период до 1960 г. взяты из USDA, op. cit. Note 16.

18 USDN, op. cit. note 6; Kenneth G. Cassman et al., “Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental Quality”, Annual Review of Environment and Resources , November 2003, pp. 322, 350; Thomas R. Sinclair, “Limits to Crop Yield?” – в сборнике: American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Physiology and Determination of Crop Yield (Madison, WIU: 1994), pp. 509–532.

19 Peter M. Vitousek et al., “Human Appropriation of the Products of Photosynthesis”, BioScience , vol. 36, No. 6 (June 1986), pp. 368–373.

20 USDA, op. cit. note 6; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.

21 Financial Times, “In Depth: The Global Food Crisis” – см. www.ft.com/foodprices, updated 6 May 2008; USDA, op. cit. note 6.

22 Office of the President, Republic of the Philippines, “RP Assured of 1.5 Million Metric Tons of Rice Supply from Vietnam Annually”, press release (Manila: 26 March 2008); “Yemen to Seek Australian Food Cooperation”, WorldGrain.com , 19 May 2008; “Indonesia Set to Become Major Rice Exporter Next Year”, WorldGrain.com , 1 July 2008; “Bahrain to Own Rice Farms in Thailand”, TradeArabia , online business newswire, 30 May 2008; Javier Blas, “Nations Make Secret Deals Over Grain”, Financial Times , 10 April 2008; Maria Kolesnikova and Alaa Shahine, “Russia, Egypt Agree on Wheat Deals to Boost Shipments”, Bloomberg , 23 June 2009.

23 GRAIN, Seized! The 2008 Land Grab for Food and Financial Security (Barcelona: October 2008); USDA, op. cit note 6; “Lybia Agrees Deal to Grow Wheat in Ukraine”, Reuters , 27 May 2009.

24 Joachim von Braun and Ruth Meinzen-Dick, “Land Grabbing” by Foreign Investors in Developing Countries, Policy Brief No 13 (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, April 2009).

25 GRAIN, op. cit. note 23; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24; “Buying Farmland Abroad: Outsourcing’s Third Wave”, The Economist , 21 May 2009.

26 GRAIN, op. cit. note 23; “Land Deals in Africa and Asia: Cornering Foreign Fields”, The Economist , 21 May 2009; Javier Blas, “Saudis Get First Taste of Foreign Harvest”, Financial Times , 4 March 2009; “Saudi’s Hadco Eyes Sudan, Turkey in Food Security Push”, Reuters , 17 February 2009; U. N. World Food Programme, “Countries” – см.: www.wfp.org/counries, просмотрено автором 4 июня 2009 г.

27“Saudis Invest 1.3 Billion in Indonesian Agriculture”, Reuters , 24 March 2009; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24.

28 Von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24; USDA, op. cit. note 6; U.N. Population Division, op. cit note 5; “China ‘May Lease Foreign Fields”, BBC News , 29 April 2008; Gurbir Singh, “China is Buying Farm Lands Abroad to Ensure Food Supplies at Home”, Business World News (New Delhi, 16 May 2008; “China Eyes Russian Farmlands in Food Push”, Russia Today (Moscow), 11 May 2008; GRAIN, op. cit. note 23, p.3; “Govt to Lease Land for FDI in Agriculture”, Myanmar Times , 11–17 September 2006; U.N. World Food Programme, op. cit note 26.

29 USDA, op. cit. note 6; GRAIN, op. cit. note 23, pp. 4, 5; “Buying Farmland Abroad”, op. cit. note 25; Javier Blas, “Hyundai Plants Seoul’s Flag on 50,000ha of Russia”, Financial Times , 15 April 2009.

30 Erik Ansink and Arjan Ruijs, “Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements”, Fondazione Ene Enrico Mattei , Working Paper No. 16.2007 (February 2007), pp. 21–23.

31 “Memorandum of Understanding on Construction of Agriculture Technology Transfer Center and Grain Production and Processing Base in the Philippines” – см.: www.newsbreak.com.ph/dmdocuments/special%20coverages/China%20Agri/Fuhua%20MOU.pdf, signed 15 January 2007; “China: Going Outward’ for Food Security”, Strator , 30 April 2008; Luzi Ann Javier, “China’s Appetite for Filipino Paddies Breeds Farmer Opposition”, Bloomberg , 21 February 2008; Tom Burgis and Javier Blas, “Madagascar Craps Daewoo Farm Deal”, Financial Time s, 18 March 2009: “Zambia’s Opposition Condemns Reported Chinese Biofuels Project”, Earth Times , 2 April 2009.

32 GRAIN, op. cit note 23, p. 10; “Buying Farmland Abroad”, op. cit. note 25.

33 Amena Bakr, “Pakistan Offers Farmland to Foreign Investors”, Reuters , 20 April 2009.

34 Michiyo Nakamoto and Javier Blas, “G8 Move to Halt ‘Farmland Grabbing”, Financial Times , 26 May 2009; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24.

35 USDA, op. cit note 6; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.

36 “Cereal Offenders”, The Economist , 27 May 2008; “Commodities Boom Recalls 70s Surge; Prices Not There Yet”, Dow Jones Newswires , 27 June 2008; Fred H. Sanderson, “The Great Food Fumble”, Science , vol. 188 (9 May 1975), pp. 503–509; U. S. Department of the Treasury, “Report on Foreign Holdings of U. S. Securities at End-June 2008”, press release (Washington, DC: 30 April 2009); U. S. Department of the Treasury, “Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities”; сведенные в таблицы текущие и прошлые данные см.: www.treasury.gov/tic, updated 16 January 2009.

37 James Bandler and Nicholas Varchaver, “How Bernie Did It”, Fortune , vol. 159, No. 10 (11 May 2009); “The Madoff Affair: Going Down Quietly”, The Economist , 12 May 2009.

38 Angus Maddison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–2006 AD” – см.: www.ggdc.net/maddison, updated March 2009; Mathis Wackernagel et al., “Tracking the Ecological Overshoot of the Human Economy”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , vol. 99, No. 14 (9 July 2002), pp. 9, 266–271; Global Footprint Network, WWF, and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2008 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, October 2008), p. 2.

39 Оценка сделана автором на основании приведенных выше данных по Китаю и Индии, а также по другим странам, в частности Саудовской Аравии и Пакистану, где водные поверхности сокращаются вследствие чрезмерного забора воды.

40 FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2008 (Rome: 2009), p. 7; Ransom A. Mayers and Boris Worm, “Rapid Worldwide Depletion of Predatory Fish Communities”, Nature, vol. 432 (15 May 2003), pp. 280–283.

41 Речь, произнесенная Полом Хокеном 3 мая 2009 г. перед студентами университета г. Портленд, штат Орегон: Paul Hawken, “Commencement Address to the Class of 2009”.

42 Eric Pfanner, “Failure Brings Call for Tougher Standards: Accounting for Enron: Global Ripple Effects”, International Herald Tribune , 17 January 2002.

43 Nicholas Stern, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (London: HM Treasury, 2006).

44 DOE, EIA, “Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices” – см.: tonto.eia. doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm, просмотрено автором 5 июня 2009 г.

45 International Center for Technology Assessment (ICTA), The Real Cost of Gasoline: An Analysis of the Hidden External Costs Consumers Pay to Fuel Their Automobiles (Washington, DC: 1998); ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities Associated with Global Climate Change (Washington, DC: September 2004); ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities: Security and Protection Services (Washington, DC: January 2005); Terry Tamminen, Lives Per Gallon: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006), p. 60, adjusted to 2007 prices with Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 3 – Price Indices for Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Purchase ”, GDP and Other Major Series, 1929–2007 (Washington, DC: August 2007); DOE, op. cit. note 44.

46 Munich Re, Topics Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2001 (Munich, Germany: 2002), pp. 16–17; стоимость урожаев пшеницы и риса в Китае взята из публикации USDA, op. cit. note 6, обновлена 12 июля 2007 г. на основании цен, взятых в электронной базе данных: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics – см.: ifs. apdi.net/imf.

47 “Forestry Cuts Down on Logging”, China Daily , 26 May 1998; Erik Eckholm, “China Admits Ecological Sins Played Role in Flood Disaster”, New York Times , 26 August 1998.

48 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy , July/August 2005, pp. 56–65.

49 Там же.

50 Lydia Polgreen, “In Congo, Hunger and Disease Erode Democracy”, New York Times , 23 June 2006; International Rescue Committee, Mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: An Ongoing Crisis (New York: January 2008), p. ii; Lydia Polgreen, “Hundreds Killed Near Chad’s Border With Sudan”, New York Times , 14 November 2006; “A Falling State: The Himalayan Kingdom Is a Gathering Menace”, The Economist , 4 December 2004.

51 “The Indian Ocean: The Most Dangerous Seas in the World”, The Economist , 17 July 2008; U. N. Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2009 (Vienna: June 2009), p. 34; Ania Lichtarowica, “Conquering Polio’s Last Frontier”, BBC News , 2 August 2007.

52 Neil MacFarquhar, “Haity’s Woes Are Top Test for Aid Efforts”, New York Times , 31 March 2009; U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook – см.: www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook, updated 26 June 2009; Madeleine K. Albright and Robin Cook, “The World Needs to Step It Up in Afganistan”, International Herald Tribune , 5 October 2004; Desmond Butler, “5-Year Hunt Fails to Net Qaeda Suspect in Africa”, New York Times , 14 June 2003; Emilio San Pedro, “U.S. Ready to Aid Mexico Drug Fight”, BBC News , 2 March 2009.

53 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy , July/August issues, 2005–2009.

54 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy , July/August 2007, pp. 54–63; Table 1–1 from Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy , July/August 2009, pp. 80–93.

55 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , op. cit. note 53.

56 U. N. Population Division, op. cit note 5; Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, July/August 2009, op. cit. note 54; Richard Cincotta and Elizabeth Leahy, “Population Age Structure and Its Relation to Civil Conflict: A Graphic Metric”, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change and Security Program Report , vol. 12 (2006–2007), pp. 55–58.

57 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , July/August 2009, op. cit. note 54.

58 Там же: U. N. Population Division, op. cit note 5.

59 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , July/August 2009, op. cit. note 54; U.N. Population Division, op. cit note 5.

60 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy , July/August 2009, op. cit. note 54; U.N.World Food Programme, op. cit. note 26.

61 Financial Times , op. cit. note 21; Carolyn Said, “Nothing Flat about Tortilla Prices: Some in Mexico Cost 60 Percent More, Leading to a Serious Struggle for Low-Income People”, San Francisco Chronicle , 13 January 2007; Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani, “Egypt: Rising Food Costs Provoke Fights Over Subsidised Bread”, Inter Press Service , 26 March 2008; Raphael Minder, John Aglionby, and Jung-a-Song, “Soaring Soybean Price Stirs Anger Among Poor ”, Financial Times , 18 January 2008; Joseph Delva and Jim Loney, “Haiti’s Government Falls after Food Riots”, Reuters , 12 April 2008.