Восхождение денег - Ниал Фергюсон

80 New York Times, 23.10.1929.

81 Nicholas, Trouble with a Bubble’. P. 4.

82 Ibid., p. 6.

83 Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost. Pp. 199H.

84 Cm.: Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, 1963). P. 299–419. Главу “Великое сжатие” следует внести в списки обязательной литературы для всех практиков финансового дела.

85 Ibid., р. 309. Прочитайте сноску, и вам станет ясно, почему ФРС незамедлительно вмешалась и позволила JP Morgan купить Bear Stearns в марте 2007 года.

86 Ibid., р. 315.

87 Ibid., р. 317.

88 Ibid., р. 396.

89 Ibid., р. 325.

90 Ibid., р. 328.

91 US Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970 (Washington, DC, 1975). P. 1019.

92 Barry Eichengreen, Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939 (New York / Oxford, 1992). См. его же статью: The Origins and Nature of the Great Slump Revisited’, Economic History Review, 45, 2 (May 1992). Pp. 213–239.

93 См., к примеру: Ben S. Bernanke, The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach’, NBER Working Paper 4814 (August 1994).

94 Hyman P. Minsky, ‘Introduction: Can «It» Happen Again? A Reprise’, in idem (ed.), Inflation, Recession and Economic Policy (Brighton, 1982). P. xi.

95 Индекс падал на 10 % и больше по итогам 23 из 113 лет его существования.

96 См.: Nicholas Brady, James С Cotting, Robert G. Kirby, John R. Opel and Howard M. Stein, Report of the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms, submitted to the President of the United States, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (Washington, DC, January 1988). Внимание историка привлекает сравнение с 1929 годом; см.: приложение VIII. Рр. 1-13.

97 James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, The Great Reckoning: How the World Will Change in the Depression of the 1990*s (London, 1991).

98 Развитие событий как оно виделось самому Гриспену, описано в его автобиографии: The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World (New York, 2007). Pp. 100–110.

99 Greenspan, Age of Turbulence’. Pp. 166.

100 Ibid., pp. 167.

101 Ibid., pp. 190–195.

102 Ibid., pp. 20off.

103 Детальный анализ содержится в книге: Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind, The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron (New York, 2003).

104 Ibid., p. 55.

105 Уоткинс рассказывает об этом в книге: Mimi Swartz and Sherron Watkins, Power Failure: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Enron (New York, 2003).

IV. Возвращение риска

1 Rawle О. King, ‘Hurricane Katrina: Insurance Losses and National Capacities for Financing Disaster Risks’, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, 31.1.2008, table 1.

2 Joseph B. Treaster, ‘A Lawyer Like a Hurricane: Facing Off Against Asbestos, Tobacco and Now Home Insurers’, New York Times, 16/3/2007.

3 За деталями можно обратиться к до гладу самого Скрагса: ‘Hurricane Katrina: Issues and Observations’, American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Judicial Symposium, ‘Insurance and Risk Allocation in America: Economics, Law and Regulation’, Georgetown Law Center, 20–22.9.2006.

4 Подробнее – на сайтах http://www.usa.gov/Gitizen/ Topics/Puhlic Safety/Hurricane _Katrina_Recovery.shtml, http://katrina. louisiana. gov/index.html и http://www.Idi.state.la.us/HurricaneKatrina.htm.

5 Peter Lattman, ‘Plaintiffs Lawyer Scruggs is Indicted on Bribery Charges’, Wall Street Journal, 29.11.2007; Ashby Jones and Paulo Prada, ‘Richard Scruggs Pleads Guilty’, Ibid., 15.3.2008.

6 King, ‘Hurricane Katrina’. P. 4.

7 Naomi Klein, The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism (New York, 2007).

8 http://www. nhc. noaa.gov/pastdec.shtmL

9 John Schwartz, ‘One Billion Dollars Later, New Orleans is Still at Risk’, New York Times, 17.8.2007.

10 Michael Lewis, ‘In Nature’s Casino’, New York Times Magazine, 26.8.2007.

11 National Safety Council, ‘What are the Odds of Dying?’: http:// www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm. Статистика по раковым заболеваниям взята из: National Cancer Institute, ‘SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2004’, table I-17: httpdlsrah.cancer.gov.Idevcanl. Истинная вероятность смерти от рака в США в период с 2002 по 2004 год составляла 21,29 % с доверительным интервалом 95 %.

12 Florence Edler de Roover, ‘Early Examples of Marine Insurance’, Journal of Economic History, 5, 2 (November 1945). Pp. 172–200.

13 Ibid., p. 188.

14 A. H. John, ‘The London Assurance Company and the Marine Insurance Market of the Eighteenth Century’, Economica, New Series, 25, 98 (May 1958). P. 130.

15 Paul A. Papayoanou, ‘Interdependence, Institutions, and the Balance of Power’, International Security, 20, 4 (Spring 1996). P. 55.

16 Roover, ‘Early Examples of Marine Insurance’. P. 196.

17 M. Greenwood, ‘The First Life Table’, Notes and Records of the Royal Society of London, 1, 2 (October 1938). Pp. 70–72.

18 При написании этого абзаца я много позаимствовал из книги Peter L. Bernstein Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (New York, 1996).

19 Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton, 2007).

2 °Cм. статьи: A. Ian Dunlop (ed.), The Scottish Ministers' Widows' Fund, 1743-199} (Edinburgh, 1992).

21 Ключевые документы хранятся в архиве Роберта Уоллеса, National Archives of Scotland: CH/9/17/6-13.

22 G. W Richmond, ‘Insurance Tendencies in England’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 161 (May 1932). P. 183.

23 A. N. Wilson, A Life of Walter Scott: The Laird of Abbotsford (London: Pimlico, 2002). Pp. 169–171.

24 G. Clayton and W T. Osborne, ‘Insurance Companies and the Finance of Industry’, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 10, 1 (February 1958). Pp. 84–97.

25 ‘American Exceptionalism’, Economist, 10.8.2006.

26 http://www.workhouses.org. uk/index.htmHStMarylehone/ StMarylehone.shtml.

27 Lothar Gall, Bismarck: The White Revolutionary, vol. 11: 1879–1898, trans. J. A. Underwood (London, 1986). P. 129.

28 H. G. Lay, Marine Insurance: A Text Book of the History of Marine Insurance, including the Functions of Lloyd's Register of Shipping (London, 1925). P. 137.

29 Richard Sicotte, ‘Economic Crisis and Political Response: The Political Economy of the Shipping Act of 191 Journal of Economic History, 59, 4 (December 1999). Pp. 861–884.

30 Anon., Allocation of Risk between Marine and War Insurer’, Yale Law Journal, 51, 4 (February 1942). P. 674; C, ‘War Risks in Marine Insurance’, Modern Law Review, 10, 2 (April 1947). Pp. 211–214.

31 Alfred T. Lauterbach, ‘Economic Demobilization in Great Britain after the First World War’, Political Science Quarterly, 57, 3 (September 1942). Pp. 376-393-

32 Correlli Barnett, The Audit of War (London, 2001). P. 31.

33 Richmond,’Insurance Tendencies’. P. 185.

34 Charles Davison, ‘The Japanese Earthquake of 1 September’, Geographical Journal, 6$, 1 (January 1925). Pp. 42k

35 Yoshimichi Miura, ‘Insurance Tendencies in Japan’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 161 (May 1932). Pp. 215–219.

36 Herbert H. Gowen, ‘Living Conditions in Japan’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 122 (November 1925). P. 163.

37 Kenneth Hewitt, ‘Place Annihilation: Area Bombing and the Fate of Urban Places’, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 73 (1983). P. 263.

38 Anon., ‘War Damage Insurance’, Yale Law Journal, 51, 7 (May 1942). P. 1160–1161. Государство заработало 210 миллионов долларов, собрав страховые премии от более чем 8 миллионов американцев и выплатив лишь крошечную часть этой суммы.

39 Kingo Tamai, ‘Development of Social Security in Japan’, in Misa Izuhara (ed.), Comparing Social Policies: Exploring New Perspectives in Britain and Japan (Bristol, 2003). Pp. 35–48. См. также Gregory J. Kasza, ‘War and Welfare Policy in Japan’, Journal of Asian Studies, 61, 2 (May 2002). P. 428.

40 Recommendation of the Council of Social Security System (1950).

41 W Macmahon Ball, ‘Reflections on Japan’, Pacific Affairs, 21, 1 (March 1948). P. 15.

42 Beatrice G. Reubens, ‘Social Legislation in Japan’, Far Eastern Survey, 18, 23 (16.11.1949). P. 270.

43 Keith L. Nelson, ‘The «Warfare State»: History of a Concept’, Pacific Historical Review, 40, 2 (May 1971). P. 138.

44 Kasza, ‘War and Welfare Policy’. P. 418.

45 Ibid., р. 423.

46 Ibid., р. 424.

47 Japanese Studies, 5, 1 (зима 1979). Рр. 5–51.

48 Ibid., р. 21.

49 Ibid., р. 9.

50 Ibid., р. 18.

51 Сравнительные исследования собраны в работах: Gregory J. Kasza, One World of Welfare: Japan in Comparative Perspective (Ithaca, 2006); Neil Gilbert and Ailee Moon, ‘Analyzing Welfare Effort: An Appraisal of Comparative Methods’, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 7, 2 (Winter 1988). Pp. 326–340.

52 Kasza, One World of Welfare. P. 107.

53 Peter H. Lindert, Growing Public: Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century (Cambridge, 2004), vol. 1, table 1.2.

54 Hiroto Tsukada, Economic Globalization and the Citizens' Welfare State (Aldershot / Burlington / Singapore / Sydney, 2002). P. 96.

55 Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960(Princeton, 1963).

56 Milton Friedman and Rose D. Friedman, Two Lucky People: Memoirs (Chicago / London, 1998). P. 399.

57 Ibid., p. 400.

58 Ibid., p. 593.

59 Patricio Silva, Technocrats and Politics in Chile: From the Chicago Boys to the CEIPLAN Monks’, Journal of Latin American Studies, 23, 2 (May 1991). Pp. 385–410.

60 Bill Jamieson, ‘25 Years On, Chile Has a Pensions Message for Britain’, Sunday Business, 14.12.2006.

61 Rossana Castiglioni, The Politics of Retrenchment: The Quandaries of Social Protection under Military Rule in Chile, 1973–1990’, Latin American Politics and Society, 43, 4 (Winter 2001). Pp. 39ff.

62 Ibid., p. 55.

63 Jose Pinera, ‘Empowering Workers: The Privatization of Social Security in Chile’, Cato Journal, 15, 2–3 (Fall / Winter 1995/96). Pp. 155–166.

64 Ibid., p. 40.

65 Teresita Ramos, ‘Chile: The Latin American Tiger?’, Harvard Business School Case 9-798-092 (21.12.1999). P 6.

66 Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Tension Reform as the Triumph of Form over Substance’, Economists' Voice (January 2008). Pp. 1–5.

67 Armando Barrientos, ‘Pension Reform and Pension Coverage in Chile: Lessons for Other Countries’, Bulletin of Latin American Research, 15, 3 (1996). P 312.

68 ‘Destitute No More’, Economist, 16.12.2007.

69 Barrientos, ‘Pension Reform’. P. 309. См. также: Raul Madrid, The Politics and Economics of Pension Privatization in Latin America’, Latin American Research Review, 37, 2 (2002). Pp. 159–182.

70 Приведены цифры за 2004-й – последний год, включенный в базу данных сравнительных показателей World Bank World Development Indicators.

71 Я многое почерпнул из работы: Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America's Economic Future (Cambridge, 2005). См. также: Peter G. Peterson, Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do about It (New York, 2005).

72 Ruth Helman, Craig Copeland and Jack VanDerhei, ‘Will More of Us Be Working Forever? The 2006 Retirement Confidence Survey’, Employee Benefit Research Institute Issue Brief, 292 (April 2006).

73 Gene L. Dodaro, Acting Comptroller General of the United States, ‘Working to Improve Accountability in an Evolving Environment’, address to the 2008 Maryland Association of CPAs’ Government and Not-for-profit Conference (18.4.2008).

74 James Brooke, ‘A Tough Sell: Japanese Social Security’, New York Times, 6.5.2004.

75 См.: Mutsuko Takahashi, The Emergence of Welfare Society in Japan (Aldershot / Brookfield / Hong Kong / Singapore / Sydney, 1997). P. 185. См. также: Kasza, Owe World of Welfare. Pp. 179–182.

76 Alex Kerr, Dogs and Demons: The Tall of Modern Japan (London, 2001). Pp. 261–266.