В поисках энергии. Ресурсные войны, новые технологии и будущее энергетики - Дэниел Ергин

1. Michael Sandel, “It’s Immoral to Buy the Right to Pollute,” op-ed, New York Times, December 17, 1997; interview with Fred Krupp.

2. Ronald Coase autobiography, Nobel Prize Web site (“underrate your abilities”).

3. Ronald Coase, “The Problem of Social Cost,” Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 3, (1960), pp. 1–44 (“externalities”).

4. John H. Dales, Pollution, Property & Prices: An Essay in Policy-making and Economics (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1968), ch. 6; David Montgomery, “Markets in Licenses and Efficient Pollution Control Programs,” Journal of Economic Theory 5, no. 3 (1972), pp. 395–418.

5. Richard Nixon, “Message to the Congress,” August 10, 1970 (“war on pollution”); Robert W. Hahn, “Economic Prescriptions for Environmental Problems: How the Patient Followed the Doctor’s Orders,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3, no. 2 (1989), pp. 97–98.

6. Richard Conniff, “The Political History of Cap and Trade,” Smithsonian, August 2009 (Canadian prime minster).

7. Interview with C. Boyden Gray; Bruce A. Ackerman and Richard B. Stewart, “Reforming Environmental Law: The Democratic Case for Market Incentives,” Columbia Journal of Environmental Law 171, no. 3 (1988).

8. Interviews with Fred Krupp and C. Boyden Gray.

9. Kathy McCauley, Bruce Barron, and Morton Coleman, Crossing the Aisle to Cleaner Air: How the Bipartisan “Project 88” Transformed Environmental Policy (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh, 2008), p. 25 (“totally different concept”); Robert N. Stavins, “What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 12, no. 3 (1998), p. 74 (“ decision-making”).

10. Joseph Goffman and Daniel J. Dudek, “The Clean Air Act Acid Rain Program: Lessons for Success in Creating a New Paradigm,” presentation, 88thAnnual Meeting, Air & Waste Management Association, June 18–23, 1995, pp. 5, 7, 9. Догадывались ли Гоффман с Дудеком об этом или нет, но они проводили идеи «ученого писаки». На деле это повторение сути исторической статьи Фридриха фон Хайека, датированной 1945 г., об использовании знаний в обществе: о том, что рассредоточенный рынок с множеством лиц, принимающих решения, который координируется системой ценообразования, оказывается лучше информированным, действует и обновляется быстрее, чем централизованно управляемая экономика. См. Frederich A. Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review 35, no. 4 (1945), pp. 519–30.

11. Stavins, “What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment?” p. 69.

12. Environmental Protection Agency, “Acid Rain and Related Programs: 2008 Highlights,” December 2009; Environmental Defense Fund, “The Cap and Trade Success Story,” February 12, 2007; Lauraine G. Chestnut and David M. Mills, “A Fresh Look at the Benefits and Costs of the U. S. Acid Rain Program,” Journal of Environmental Management 77 (2005), pp. 252–66.

13. A. Denny Ellerman, Paul L. Joskow, Richard Schmalensee, Juan-Pablo Montero, and Elizabeth M. Bailey, Markets for Clean Air: The U. S. Acid Rain Program (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), p. 314 (“impossible to believe”); interview with Joseph Goffman; Fred Krupp, “The Making of a Market-Minded Environmentalist,” Strategy + Business 51 (2008), pp. 1–7.

14. Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change: The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. 87–89, 112–13 (“best estimated”); Richard A. Kerr, “It’s Official: Humans Are Behind Most of Global Warming,” Science 291, no. 5504 (2001), p. 566.

15. Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 108, 139.

16. Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 137, 182, 196 (“lacked the scientific knowledge”); Richard S. Linzden, “Taking Greenhouse Warming Seriously,” Energy and Environment 18, no. 7–8 (2007), pp. 937–50 (“iconic claim”).

17. Interview.

18. Interviews with Stuart Eizenstat, David Sandalow, and Joseph Goffman.

19. Interview with Stuart Eizenstat.

20. Interview with Chuck Hagel.

21. Krupp, “The Making of a Market-Minded Environmentalist,” pp. 1–7 (policies and measures); interview with Stuart Eizenstat (“three issues”).

22. Interview with Stuart Eizenstat.

23. Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 151, 159.

24. Interviews with Chuck Hagel and others.

Глава 24. Проблема мирового значения

1. Tony Blair, A Journey: My Political Life (New York: Knopf, 2010), pp. 554–60.

2. Nicholas Stern to author; Nicholas Stern, The Global Deal: Climate Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity (New York: Public Affairs, 2009), p. 204.

3. Interviews with James Connaughton (“zippo”) and Jeffrey Kupfer; Christine Todd Whitman, It’s My Party Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America (New York: Penguin, 2005) pp. 170–73; Ron Suskind, The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O’Neill (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), pp. 88, 99, 121–22; Paul O’Neill, Science, Politics, and Global Climate Change (Pittsburgh: Alcoa, 1998).

4. Interview with Donald Evans.

5. Interview with James Mahoney; Granger Morgan, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Henrion, D. Keith, R. Lempert, S. McBrid, M. Small, T. Wilbanks, eds., Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking (Washington, D. C.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009).

6. Blair, A Journey, p. 311 (“masterstroke”).

7. Interview with David King; David King, “The Science of Climate Change: Adapt, Mitigate or Ignore?” The Ninth Zuckerman Lecture, October 31, 2002; David King, “Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate, or Ignore?” Science 303, no. 5655 (2004), pp. 176–77.

8. CENTRA Technology Inc. and Scitor Corporation, “Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications,” September 2009.

9. Interview with Richard Sandor; Richard Sandor, “Market Based Solutions for Climate Change,” paper, September 1, 2004.

10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 2, 12, 85–88; Al Gore remarks at the Wall Street Journal Eco-Nomics conference, March3, 2009.

11. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007); Economist, November 2, 2006.

12. Interviews with William Nordhaus and Nicholas Stern.

13. John Browne, Beyond Business (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2010), p. 80; John Browne, speech, Stanford University, May 19, 1997.

14. Daniel C. Esty and Andrew S. Winston, Green to Gold: How Smart Companies Use Environmental Strategy to Innovate, Create Value, and Build Competitive Advantage (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2006); Global Climate “Backgrounder,” February 25, 1997 (“radical reductions”).

15. Al Gore, Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, Oslo, Norway, December 10, 2007.

16. Rajendra Pachauri, “Energy and Growth: Beyond the Myths and Myopia,” Energy Journal 10, no 1 (1989), p. 12 (“continuing insularity”); “A Conversation with Nobel Prize Winner Rajendra Pachauri,” Yale Environment 360, June 3, 2008 (“alarm”); interview with Rajendra Pachauri, CERAWeek, February 11, 2008 (“no room”).

17. Nancy Pelosi, speech, Johns Hopkins University Commencement, May 21, 2009.

18. Transcript, “Departments of Veterans Affairs and Housing and Urban Development and Independent Agencies Appropriations for 1999 – Part 7 – Environmental Protection Agency,” U. S. House of Representatives Appropriations Committee, 1998; Carol Browner, speech, MIT Energy Initiative, April 13, 2009; George W. Bush, letter to Chuck Hagel, March13, 2001 (“not a ‘pollutant’”).

19. Edward Markey, speech, MIT Energy Initiative, April 13, 2009 (“most important”); Opinion of the Supreme Court, Massachusetts et al. v. Environmental Protection Agency, April 2, 2007, 549 U. S. 497, pp. 2–3, 16; New York Times, October 30, 2006.

20. Interviews with Samuel Bodman and Paula Dobriansky; George W. Bush, State of the Union Address, Washington, D. C., January 23, 2007; George W. Bush, Decision Points (New York: Crown, 2010), p. 347.

Глава 25. В поисках консенсуса

1. Barack Obama, “Remarks on Jobs, Energy Independence, and Climate Change,” January 26, 2009.

2. Interview with Ed Markey.

3. Erica Downs, “China’s Energy Rise” in China’s Rise in Historical Perspective, ed. Brantly Womack (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2010), p. 190.

4. Joanna A. Lewis, “China’s Strategic Priorities in International Climate Change Negotiations,” Washington Quarterly 31, no. 1 (Winter 2007–8), pp. 155–74 (four-year study); National Development and Reform Commission, “China’s National Climate Change Program,” People’s Republic of China, June 2007 (“further intensify”); Kenneth Lieberthal, “U. S.-China Clean Energy Partnership: Progress, Prospects and Recommendations,” Brookings Institution, September 2009 (possible consequences); New York Times, September 8, 2009 (“win-win”).

5. Isabel Hinton, “In India, A Clear Victor on the Climate Front,” Yale Environment 360, March1, 2010 (“kiss of death”); Jairam Ramesh, speech to Parliament, December 3, 2009; Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2010 (“ bread-and-butter”).

6. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Draft Decision: Proposal by the President, Copenhagen Accord,” December 18, 2009 (“international measurement”); William Antholis and Strobe Talbott, Fast Forward: Ethics and Politics in the Age of Global Warming (Washington, D. C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), ch. 5 (“variable geometry”); interview with David Sandalow; Eric Pooley, The Climate War: True Believers, Power Brokers, and the Fight to Save the Earth (New York: Hyperion, 2010), pp. 423–41.