В поисках энергии. Ресурсные войны, новые технологии и будущее энергетики - Дэниел Ергин

11. Carol Browner, CNBC interview, February 16, 2010.

12. Gregory Jaczko, “A View from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission,” speech, March1, 2010.

13. IHS CERA unpublished paper, “Small Nuclear Reactors – The Promise and the Reality.”.

14. Douglas Frantz and Catherine Collins, Fallout: The True Story of the CIA’s Secret War on Nuclear Trafficking (New York: Free Press, 2011), pp. 82–86; Robert G. Joseph, Countering WMD: The Libyan Experience (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2009), ch. 1.

15. William Langewiesche, The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2007), p. 173.

16. World Nuclear Association, “Reactor Database.”.

17. Reuters, December 27, 2009.

18. Interview.

19. World Nuclear News, June 10, 2008 (“absolutely wrong”); Reuters, November 10, 2010.

20. European Nuclear Society, “Nuclear Power Plants, Worldwide,” at http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/n/nuclear-power-plant-world-wide.htm.

21. World Nuclear News, January 8, 2011 (“insufficient”); New York Times, March 21, 2011 (“changed everything”); Reuters, April 15, 2011 (“exit”).

22. Dallas Morning News, April 19, 2011 (“month after month”).

23. John Rowe, speech, CERAWeek, March 2011.

Глава 20. Ледниковая эпопея

1. John Tyndall, The Glaciers of the Alps (Boston: Ticknor and Fields, 1860), p. 11.

2. Tyndall, The Glaciers of the Alps, p. 21 (“sentiment”); A. S. Eve and C. H. Creasey, Life and Work of John Tyndall (London: Macmillan, 1945), p. 23 (“language”).

3. Tyndall, The Glaciers of the Alps, p. 17 (“ancient glaciers”).

4. Horace Bénédict de Saussure, Voyage dans de Alps (Geneva: Chez Les Principaux Libraires, 1834).

5. James Rodger Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998), p. 61 (“mathematical theory”).

6. Elizabeth Cary Agassiz, ed., Louis Agassiz: His Life and Correspondence, vol. 1 (Cambridge: Riverside Press, 1886), pp. 263–64 (“shroud”); Edward Lurie, Louis Agassiz: A Life in Science (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988), pp. 80–102 (“beloved fossil fishes,” “God’s great plough”).

7. Eve and Creasey, Life and Work of John Tyndall, p. 86 (“gases not natural”); Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change, pp. 68–69 (“in my hands”); Mike Hulme, “On the Origin of the ‘Greenhouse Effect’: John Tyndall’s 1859 Interrogation of Nature,” Weather 64, no. 5 (2009), pp. 121–23 (“experimentally based account”).

8. Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change, pp. 58–71 (“tendency to accumulate,” “every variation”); Eve and Creasey, Life and Work of John Tyndall, p. 279 (“my poor darling”).

9. Svante Arrhenius, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground,” The London, Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, April 1896, pp. 237–76 (“absorption of the atmosphere”); Julia Uppenbrink, “Arrhenius and Global Warming,” Science 272, no. 5265 (1996), p. 1122.

10. Spencer Weart, “The Discovery of Global Warming” and “The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect,” The Discovery of Global Warming, at http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm (three thousand years); Svante Arrhenius, Worlds in the Making: The Evolution of the Universe, tr. H. Borns (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1908), p. 63 (“more abundant crops”).

11. Gustaf Arrhenius Oral History, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Library, April 11, 2006.

12. John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath (New York: Penguin Books, 2006), p. 4.

13. G. S. Callendar, “Can Carbon Dioxide Influence Climate?” Weather 4 (1949), pp. 310–14 (“chequered history”).

14. Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change, p. 115.

15. Weart, “The Discovery of Global Warming” and “The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect,” (“marketplace of ideas”); Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change, p. 113 (“abandoned”).

Глава 21. Эпоха открытий

1. Roger R. Revelle Oral History, The Bancroft Library, University of California, Berkeley, 1986; Judith Morgan and Neil Morgan, Roger: A Biography of Roger Revelle (San Diego: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 1996), p. 89 (“a lot of imagination”), pp. 44–45.

2. San Diego Daily, June 27, 1990.

3. Morgan and Morgan, Roger, p. 19; Gustaf Arrhenius Oral History Project, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Library, April 11, 2006 (“extreme stretch”); David M. Hart and David G. Victor, “Scientific Elites and the Making of US Policy for Climate Change Research, 1957–74,” Social Studies of Science 23 (1993), p. 648 (“ carbon-cycle”).

4. Nancy Scott Anderson, An Improbable Venture: A History of the University of California, San Diego (La Jolla: University of California San Diego Press, 1993), pp. 32–33 (“unexpected discoveries”); October 10, 1949, Proposed University of California Mid-Pac Expedition, p. 20 (“featureless plain”); Morgan and Morgan, Roger, p. 86 (“ best-known”).

5. Ronald Rainger, “Patronage and Science: Roger Revelle, the U. S. Navy, and Oceanography at the Scripps Institution,” Earth Sciences History 19:1 (2000), pp. 58–89; Arrhenius Oral History (“stratified”).

6. R. Revelle and H. Suess, “Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 During the Past Decades,” Tellus, 9, no. 1, 1957; Spencer Weart, “Roger Revelle’s Discovery,” The Discovery of Global Warming, http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Revelle.htm.

7. Arrhenius Oral History (“grand experiment”); Hart and Victor, “Scientific Elites,” p. 656 (“curiosity”).

8. Mark Bowen, Thin Ice: Unlocking the Secrets of Climate Change on the World’s Highest Mountains (New York: Henry Holt, 2005), pp. 110–11.

9. Sydney Chapman, IGY: Year of Discovery (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1959), p. 54 (“metal loses its strength”); Time, May 4, 1959.

10. Stephen E. Ambrose, Eisenhower: Soldier and Statesman (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990), pp. 13–39; David Eisenhower, Eisenhower at War: 1943–1954 (New York: Random House, 1986), pp. 241–53; Sverre Petterssen, Weathering the Storm: Sverre Petterssen, the D – Day Forecast, and the Rise of Modern Meteorology, ed. James Rodger Fleming (Boston: American Meteorological Society, 2001), chs. 16–19; The New York Times, June 6, 1964.

11. Roger R. Revelle, “Sun, Sea and Air: IGY Studies of the Heat and Water Budget of the Earth,” Geophysics and the IGY, Geophysical Monograph, no. 2. American Geophysical Union, July 1958, pp. 147–53 (“dark age”); Ronald Fraser, Once Around the Sun: The Story of the International Geophysical Year (New York: Macmillan Company, 1958), p. 37 (“ man-made”).

12. Hart and Victor, “Scientific Elites,” p. 651 (“adequately documented”); Arrhenius Oral History (“historic event”).

13. Charles David Keeling, “Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth,” Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 23 (1998), pp. 25–82.

14. Keeling, “Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth,” p. 30.

15. Revelle Oral History (“never been interested”); Keeling, “Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth,” pp. 78–79 (“keen interest”).

16. Spencer Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2003), pp. 128–29.

17. Revelle Oral History (“most beautiful”); Arrhenius Oral History (“I’m sorry”).

18. Keeling, “Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth,” p. 48 (“present trends”); Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, p. 38 (“central icon”).

19. Alan D. Hecht and Dennis Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change: A Scientific and Policy History,” Climactic Change 29 (1995), p. 375.

20. The White House, Restoring the Quality of Our Environment: Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, November 1965, pp. 126–27 (“almost certainly”); Hubert Heffner to Dr. Daniel P. Moynihan, January 26, 1970, Moynihan Papers, Nixon Library; Steven R. Weisman, Daniel Patrick Moynihan: Portrait in Letters of an American Visionary (New York: Public Affairs, 2010), p. 202 (“get involved”).

21. Betty Friedan, “The Coming Ice Age,” Harper’s, September 1958; G. J. Kukla and R. K. Matthews, “When Will the Present Interglacial Period End?” Science 178, no. 4057 (1972), pp. 190–91 (“global cooling”); Hecht and Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change,” p. 376 (Defense Department climate analysis); S. I. Rasool and S. H. Schneider, “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate,” Science 173, no. 3992 (1971), pp. 138–41 (“trigger an ice age”); James Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998), p. 132 (U. S. National Science Board report); Wallace Broecker, “Climate Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?” Science 189, no. 4201 (1975), pp 460–63 (“discount the warming effect”).

22. Hecht and Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change,” p. 377 (“propelling concern”) Thomas Peterson, William Connolley, and John Fleck disagree, strongly arguing that it is a “popular myth” and a “falsehood” to say that “in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting ‘global cooling.’ “The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,” Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connolley, John Fleck, “The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 89, Issue 9, pp. 1325–37. Они пришли к такому выводу на основе анализа публикаций, включая цитаты из различных статей, за период с 1965 по 1979 г. Вину за «миф» они возложили в определенной мере на «средства массовой информации». Вместе с тем, как свидетельствует ответ Мойнихану, между учеными в те годы существовал ясный раскол. Как заметил отец моделирования климата Сюкуро Манабе, «в то время глобальное потепление никого не волновало… Некоторые считали, что надвигается новый ледниковый период». Однако к концу 1970-х гг. акцент сместился с похолодания на потепление, если не считать, конечно, «ядерной зимы». Короче говоря, все это десятилетие характеризовалось отсутствием «согласия».