Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

21 Richard Magleby, “Soil Management and Conservation” in USDA, Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators 2003 (Washington, DC: February 2003), Chapter 4.2, p. 14.

22 USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1; Randall D. Schnepf et al., Agriculture in Brazil and Argentina (Washington, DC: USDA ERS, 2001), pp. 8–10.

23 Pedro Sanchez, “The Climate Change-Soil Fertility-Food Security Nexus”, summary note (Bonn: IFPRI, 4 September 2001).

24 Edward Cody, “Chinese Lawmakers Approve Measure to Protect Private Property Rights”, Washington Post , 17 March 2007; Jim Yardley, “China Nears Passage of Landmark Property Law”, New York Times , 9 March 2007; Zhu Keliang and Roy Prosterman, “From Land Rights to Economic Boom”, China Business Review , July-August 2006.

25 Данные о производительности земли – USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1, данные до 1961 г. взяты из USDA, Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 18; оценки количества воды, необходимой для выращивания зерна, взяты из публикации: FAO, Yield Response to Water (Rome: 1979).

26 Данные по использованию воды взяты из I. A. Shiklomanov, “Assessment of Water Resources and Water Availability in the World”, Report for the Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World (St. Petersburg, Russia: State Hydrological Institute, 1998), цитируется по Peter H. Gleick, The World’s Water 2000–2001 (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000), p. 53; Sandra Postel and Amy Vickers, “Boosting Water Productivity” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2004 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2004), pp. 51–52.

27 Wang Shucheng, личная беседа с автором, Пекин, май 2004 г.

28 FAO, Crops and Drops (Rome: 2002), p. 17; Alan Vidal, Aline Comeau and Hervеˆ Plusquellec, Case Studies on Water Conservation in the Mediterranean Region (Rome: FAO, 2001), p. vii.

29 Postel and Vickers, op. cit. note 26, p. 53.

30 Sandra Postel et al., “Drip Irrigation for Small Farmers: A New Initiative to Alleviate Hunger and Poverty”, Water International , March 2001, pp. 3–13.

31 Там же.

32 “Punjab’s Depleting Groundwater Stagnates Agricultural Growth”, Down to Earth , vol. 16, no. 5 (30 July 2007).

33 R. Maria Saleth and Arial Dinar, Water Challenge and Institutional Response: A Cross-Country Perspective (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1999), p. 6; Comisi o n Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA), National Water Program 2007–2012 (Coyoac a n, Mexico: February 2008), p. 71.

34 World Bank and Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Summary Report, Middle East and North Africa Regional Water Initiative Workshop on Sustainable Groundwater Management, Sana’a, Yemen, 25–28 June 2000, p. 19; Mei Xie, cтарший специалист по водным ресурсам из World Bank Institute, электронное письмо Дж. Мэттью Роуни, Earth Policy Institute, 10 июля 2009 г.

35 USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1; Cynthia Guven and Sherif Ibrahim, Egypt Grain and Feed Annual 2009 (Cairo: USDA, March 2009); “Rice Cropped for Water”, China Daily , 9 January 2002; National Bureau of Statistics of China, Statistical Data , электронная база данных – см. www.stats.gov. cn/english/statisticaldata/yearlydata, просмотрено автором 9 июня 2009 г.

36 U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 3; USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 1; объем воды рассчитан на основе предположения, что на производство 1 т зерна требуется 1000 т воды – данные взяты из FAO, op. cit. note 25.

37 USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1;

38 FAO, 1948–1985 World Crop and Livestock Statistics (Rome: 1987); FAO, op. cit. note 10; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 3.

39 Данные по домашней птице получены на основе данных из Robert V. Bishop et al., The World Poultry Market – Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform (Washington, DC: USDA, 1990); данные по производству говядины взяты из личной беседы с Allen Baker, сотрудником Feed Situation and Outlook, ERS, USDA, 27 апреля 1992 г.; данные по производству свинины взяты из личной беседы с Leland Southard, сотрудником Livestock and Poultry Situation and Outlook, 27 апреля 1992 г.; данные по рыбе взяты из Rosamond Naylor et al., “Effect of Aquaculture on World Fish Supplies”, Nature, vol. 405 (29 June 2000), pp. 1017–1024.

40 FAO, op. cit. note 10.

41 FAO, FISHSTAT Plus , электронная база данных – см. www.fao.org, данные обновлены в феврале 2009 г.; Naylor et al., op. cit. note 39.

42 FAO, op. cit. note 41; Taija-Riitta Tuominen and Maren Esmark, Food for Though: The Use of Marine Resources in Fish Feed (Oslo: WWF-Norway, 2003); Rosamоnd Naylor and Marshall Burke, “Aquaculture and Ocean Resources: Raising Tigers of the Sea”, Annual Review of Environmental Resources, vol. 30 (November 2005), pp. 185–218.

43 FAO, op. cit. note 41.

44 S. F. Li, “Aquaculture Research and Its Relation to Development in China”, in World Fish Center, Agricultural Development and the Opportunities for Aquatic Resources Research in China (Penang, Malaysia: 2001), p. 26; FAO, op. cit. note 41.

45 FAO, op. cit. note 10; FAO, op. cit. note 41.

46 Naylor et al., op. cit. note 39; W. C. Nandeesha et al., “Breeding of Carp with Oviprim” in Indian Branch, Asian Fisheries Society, India , Special Publication No. 4 (Mangalore, India: 1990), p.1.

47 “Mekong Delta to Become Biggest Aquatic Producer in Vietnam”, Vietnam News Agency , 3 August 2004; “The Mekong Delta Goes Ahead with the WTO”, Vietnam Economic News Online, 8 June 2007; FAO, op. cit. note 41.

48 Naylor et al., op. cit. note 39; FAO, op. cit. note 41; USDA, NASS, Catfish Production (Washington, DC: 30 January 2009), pp. 17–20; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 3.

49 USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Market and Trade (Washington, DC: May 2009).

50 USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1.

51 Исторические данные взяты из USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 18; USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1.

52 FAO, op. cit. note 10.

53 S.C Dhall and Meena Dhall, “Dairy Industry – India’s Strength in Its Livestock”, Business Line, интернет-издание Financial Daily , Hindu group of publication, 7 November 1997; также см. Surinder Sud, “India Is Now World’s Larger Milk Producer”, India Perspectives , May 1999, pp. 25–26; A. Banerjee, “Dairying Systems in India“, World Animal Review , vol. 79, no. 2 (1994).

54 FAO, op. cit. note 10; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 3.

55 Dhall and Dhall, op. cit. note 53; Banerjee, op. cit. note 53; FAO, op. cit. note 10.

56 John Wade, Adam Branson and Xiang Qing, China Grain and Feed Annual Report 2002 (Beijing: USDA, 2002); Gao Tengyun, “Treatment and Utilization of Crop Straw and Stover in China”, Livestock Research for Rural Development, February 2000.

57 USDA, ERS, “China’s Beef Economy: Production, Marketing, Consumption and Foreign Trade”, International Agriculture and Trade reports: China (Washington, DC: July 1998), p. 28.

58 FAO, op. cit. note 10; FAO, op. cit. note 41; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 3.

59 U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 3; данные по экономическому росту Китая взяты из International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database – см. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo, данные обновлены в апреле 2009 г.; FAO, FAOSTAT , электронная база данных – см. faostat.fao.org, данные обновлены 30 июня 2007 г.

60 Lisa McLaughlin, “Inner-City Farms”, Time, 4 August 2008; Caryn Rousseau, “More Schools Cultivate Learning in Student Gardens”, Associated Press, 17 November 2008; USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, “Farmers Market Growth: 1994–2008” – см. www.ams.usda. gov, данные обновлены 22 сентября 2008 г.

61 Исторические данные взяты из Carolyn Dimitri, Anne Effland and Neilson Conklin, The 20th Century Transformation of U.S. Agriculture and Farm Policy (Washington, DC: USDA, ERS, June 2005), p. 5; USDA, NASS, 2007 Census of Agriculture (Washington, DC: February 2009), pp. 7, 64, 110–111; Andrew Martin, “Farm Living (Subsidized by a Job Elsewhere)”, New York Times , 8 February 2009.

62 Martin, op. cit. note 61; USDA, op. cit. note 61, pp. 52, 66–67.

63 Marian Burros, “Obamas to Plant Vegetable Garden at White House”, New York Times , 20 March 2009; Michelle Polan, “Farmer in Chief”, New York Times Magazine, 12 October 2008.

64 Cristina Milesi et al., “Mapping and Modeling the Biogeochemical Cycling of Turf Grasses in the United States”, Environmental Management, vol. 36, no. 3 (19 July 2005), pp. 426–438.

65 McLaughlin, op. cit. note 60; “Digging Their Way Out of Recession”, The Economist , 26 February 2009; Adrian Higgins, “Community Gardens Need Room to Grow”, Washington Post, 14 February 2008.

66 USDA, op. cit. note 60; текущие данные получены от Joan Shaffer, USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, и из личной беседы с Дж Мэттью Роуни, Earth Policy Institute, 13 мая 2009 г.; Valerie Bauman, “More Farmers Markets to Accept Food Stamps”, Associated Press , 26 August 2008.

67 Rousseau, op. cit. note 60; Mary MacVean, “Maria Shriver Says Edible Garden Will Be Planted in Capitol Park Flower Bed”, Los Angeles Times, 27 March 2009.

68 Marian Burros, “Supermarket Chains Narrow Their Sights”, New York Times, 6 August 2008; “Digging Their Way Out of Recession”, op. cit. note 65.

69 Rich Pirog and Andrew Benjamin, Checking the Food Odometer: Comparing Food Miles for Local Versus Conventional Produce Sales to Iowa Institutions (Ames, IA: Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, Iowa State University, July 2003); Michael Pollan, In Defense of Food (New York: The Penguin Group, 2008), pp. 157–158; Marc Xuereb, Food Miles: Environmental Implications of Food Imports to Waterloo Region (Waterloo, ON: Region of Waterloo Public Health, November 2005); Erika Engelhaupt, “Do Food Miles Matter?” Environmental Science and Technology Online – см.: pubs.acs.org, 16 апреля 2008;

70 “The Environment: Not on the Label”, The Economist, 19 May 2007 г.; John Waples, “Tesco Turns Itself into a Green Giant”, Sunday Times (London), 31 мая 2009; Tesco PLC, “Tesco Wins Green ‘Gold Standart’ Award”, press release (Hertfordshire, U.K.: 5 June 2009); Miles Costello, “Tesco Reports Record £3 Billion Profit”, The Times (London), 21 April 2009 г.

71 Lauren Etter, “Lofty Prices for Fertilizer Put Farmers in a Squeeze”, Wall Street Journal , 27 May 2008 г.; David A. Vaccari, “Phosphorus: A Looming Crisis” , Scientific American , June 2009, pp. 54–59.

72 Program for Appropriate Technology in Health and U.N. Population Fund, Meeting the Need: Strengthening Family Planning Programs (Seattle, WA: 2006), pp. 5–11;

73 Данные автора, вычисленные на основе данных из USDA, PS&D, o p. cit. note 1; U.N. Poulation Division, op. cit. note 3.

74 USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1; U.N. Poulation Division, op. cit. note 3; FAO, FAOSTAT , электронная база данных – см. faostat.fao.org, данные обновлены в мае 2008 г.

75 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Total Health Expenditure per Capita, US$ PPP” из OECD Health Data 2008 – Frequently Requested Data – см. www.oecd.org, декабрь 2008 г.; FAO, op. cit. note 59.

76 Gidon Eshel and Pamela A. Martin, “Diet, Energy, and Global Warming”, Earth Interactions , vol. 10, no. 9 (April 2006), pp. 1–17.

77 Данные по домашней птице взяты из Bishop et al., op. cit. note 39; по говядине – из Baker, op. cit. note 39; по рыбе – из Naylor et al., op. cit. note 39.

78 Площадь земель оценена на основе данных, приведенных в работе: Stanley Wood, Kate Sebastian and Sara J. Scherr, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Agroecosystems (Washington, DC: IFPRI and World Resources Institute, 2000), p. 3.

79 Данные об эффективности взяты из USDA, NASS, Agricultural Statisctics 2008 (Washington, DC: 2008), p. I-21, III-16.

80 USDA, PS&D , op. cit. note 1; USDA, Feedgrains Database , op. cit. note 1; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 3.

81 Затраты на приобретение земли взяты из Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, цитируется по Joe DeCapua, “Food Crisis Triggers Land Grab in Developing Countries, Voice of America News, 29 April 2009.

К ГЛАВЕ 10

1 Питер Голдмарк, Фонд защиты окружающей среды, послание автору по электронной почте 28 июня 2009 г.

2 Lester R. Brown, “Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?”, Scientific American , May 2009, pp. 50–57.

3 Mohammad Yunus and Karl Weber, Creating a World Without Poverty (New York: PublicAffairs, 2008), p. 105.

4 Йостин Дале, дискуссия с автором на Конференции о состоянии мира, Аспен, Колорадо, 22 июля 2001 г.