Власть роботов. Как подготовиться к неизбежному - Мартин Форд
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202
Ford, Interview with Oren Etzioni, in Architects of Intelligence, p. 494.
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Ford, Architects of Intelligence, p. 528.
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Эта оценка пессимистична по сравнению с результатами других опросов. Поскольку многие из них проводились на конференциях по ИИ, охват исследователей с разным профессиональным уровнем был намного более широким. Большинство прогнозов появления универсального ИИ с вероятностью 50 % приходится на 2040–2050 годы. Список опросов см. в сноске 63 в главе 5.
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«AI timeline surveys,» AI Impacts, accessed June 27, 2020, aiimpacts.org/ai-timeline-surveys/.
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Наш путешественник во времени вторит бывшему министру финансов и директору Национального экономического совета Лоуренсу Саммерсу, который в ноябре 2016 года предсказал, что к 2050 году от четверти до трети мужчин трудоспособного возраста будут вытеснены из трудовых ресурсов. (См. сноску 1 в главе 6.)
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David Axelrod, «Larry Summers,» The Axe Files (podcast), episode 98, November 21, 2016, omny.fm/shows/the-axe-files-with-david-axelrod/ep-98-larry-summers.
208
Sam Fleming and Brooke Fox, «US states that voted for Trump most vulnerable to job automation,» Financial Times, January 23, 2019, www.ft.com/content/cbf2a01e-1f41-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65.
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Carol Graham, «Understanding the role of despair in America’s opioid crisis,» Brookings Institution, October 15, 2019, www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-can-policy-address-the-opioid-crisis-and-despair-in-america/.
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См., например: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, «The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?», Oxford Martin School Programme on Technology and Employment, Working Paper, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, p. 38.
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U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Unemployment rate (UNRATE),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 18, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE; Greg Rosalsky, «Are we even close to full employment?» NPR Planet Money, July 2, 2019, www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/07/02/737790095/are-we-even-close-to-full-employment.
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Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, «Activity rate: Aged 25–54: Males for the United States (LRAC25MAUSM156S),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 17, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25MAUSM156S.
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«Trends in Social Security Disability Insurance,» Social Security Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Briefing Paper No. 2019-01, August 2019, www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/briefing-papers/bp2019-01.html.
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U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Labor force participation rate (CIVPART),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 17, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART.
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U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real output per hour of all persons (OPHPBS),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHPBS; U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real compensation per hour (PRS84006151),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS84006151.
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World Bank, «GINI index for the United States (SIPOVGINIUSA),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 20, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA.
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Martha Ross and Nicole Bateman, «Low-wage work is more pervasive than you think, and there aren’t enough ‘good jobs’ to go around,» Brookings Institution, November 21, 2019, www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/11/21/low-wage-work-is-more-pervasive-than-you-think-and-there-arent-enough-good-jobs-to-go-around/.
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«The U. S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI),» accessed July 15, 2020, www.jobqualityindex.com/.
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Gwynn Guilford, «The great American labor paradox: Plentiful jobs, most of them bad,» Quartz, November 21, 2019, qz.com/1752676/the-job-quality-index-is-the-economic-indicator-weve-been-missing/.
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Elizabeth Redden, «41 % of recent grads work in jobs not requiring a degree,» Inside Higher Ed, February 18, 2020, www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/02/18/41-recent-grads-work-jobs-not-requiring-degree.
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«The Phillips curve may be broken for good,» The Economist, November 1, 2017, www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/11/01/the-phillips-curve-may-be-broken-for-good.
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Jeff Jeffrey, «U. S. companies are rolling in cash, and they’re growing increasingly fearful to spend it,» The Business Journals, December 12, 2018, www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2018/12/12/u-s-companies-are-hoarding-cash-and-theyre-growing.html.
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Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, Basic Books, 2015, pp. 206–21.
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Martin Ford, Interview with James Manyika, in Architects of Intelligence: The Truth about AI from the People Building It, Packt Publishing, 2018, pp. 285–286.
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Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu, «Job polarization and jobless recoveries,» National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 18334, issued in August 2012, revised in November 2018, www.nber.org/papers/w18334.
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Jacob Bunge and Jesse Newman, «Tyson turns to robot butchers, spurred by coronavirus outbreaks,» Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2020, www.wsj.com/articles/meatpackers-covid-safety-automation-robots-coronavirus-11594303535.
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Miso Robotics, «White Castle selects Miso Robotics for a new era of artificial intelligence in the fast-food industry,» Press Release Newswire, July 14, 2020, www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/white-castle-selects-miso-robotics-for-a-new-era-of-artificial-intelligence-in-the-fast-food-industry-301092746.html.
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James Manyika, Susan Lund, Michael Chui, et al., «Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages,» McKinsey Global Institute, November 28, 2017, www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.
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Ferris Jabr, «Cache cab: Taxi drivers’ brains grow to navigate London’s streets,» Scientific American, December 8, 2011, www.scientificamerican.com/article/london-taxi-memory/.
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Kate Conger, «Facebook starts planning for permanent remote workers,» New York Times, May 21, 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/technology/facebook-remote-work-coronavirus.html.
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Alexandre Tanzi, «Gloom grips U. S. small businesses, with 52 % predicting failure,» Bloomberg, May 6, 2020, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/majority-of-u-s-small-businesses-expect-to-close-survey-says.
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Alfred Liu, «Robots to cut 200,000 U. S. bank jobs in next decade, study says,» Bloomberg, October 1, 2019, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-02/robots-to-cut-200-000-u-s-bank-jobs-in-next-decade-study-says.
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Jack Kelly, «Artificial intelligence is superseding well-paying Wall Street jobs,» Forbes, December 10, 2019, www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/12/10/artificial-intelligence-is-superseding-well-paying-wall-street-jobs/.
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«Top healthcare chatbots startups,» Tracxn,
