Власть роботов. Как подготовиться к неизбежному - Мартин Форд

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Эта оценка пессимистична по сравнению с результатами других опросов. Поскольку многие из них проводились на конференциях по ИИ, охват исследователей с разным профессиональным уровнем был намного более широким. Большинство прогнозов появления универсального ИИ с вероятностью 50 % приходится на 2040–2050 годы. Список опросов см. в сноске 63 в главе 5.

205

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Наш путешественник во времени вторит бывшему министру финансов и директору Национального экономического совета Лоуренсу Саммерсу, который в ноябре 2016 года предсказал, что к 2050 году от четверти до трети мужчин трудоспособного возраста будут вытеснены из трудовых ресурсов. (См. сноску 1 в главе 6.)

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Jeff Jeffrey, «U. S. companies are rolling in cash, and they’re growing increasingly fearful to spend it,» The Business Journals, December 12, 2018, www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2018/12/12/u-s-companies-are-hoarding-cash-and-theyre-growing.html.

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Alfred Liu, «Robots to cut 200,000 U. S. bank jobs in next decade, study says,» Bloomberg, October 1, 2019, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-02/robots-to-cut-200-000-u-s-bank-jobs-in-next-decade-study-says.

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«Top healthcare chatbots startups,» Tracxn,