Левое полушарие – правильные решения. Мыслить и действовать: как интуиция поддерживает логику - Фил Розенцвейг
Шрифт:
Интервал:
Закладка:
Статьи
Adams, Tim. “How a Book about Baseball Statistics Changed the Way We Think about Football.” Esquire, September 2011, 198–203.
Ahmed, Murad. “Jobs: The Special One.” The Times, October 29, 2011, 16.
Alpert, Marc, and Howard Raiffa. “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors.” Unpublished manuscript, 1969. In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Cambridge, UK: CambridgeUniversity Press, 1982.
Ashenfelter, Orley. “Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wine.” Economic Journal 118, no. 529 (June 2008): F174–F184.
AT&T Wireless Services, Inc. Proxy Statement Pursuant to Section 14 (a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, March 22, 2004.
Austen, Ian. “Bicycle Thieves: World-Class Cycling’s Drug Trade.” New York Times, September 12, 2012, C7.
Austin, Michael. “Building the Perfect Arc: Research Shows Players Need to Keep Shot Arc around 45 Degrees.” Winning Hoops, May/June 2010, 20–27.
Baker, Peter, and Jim Rutemberg. “The Long Road to a Clinton Exit.” New York Times, June 8, 2008, A1.
Bazerman, Max H., and William F. Samuelson. “I Won the Auction but I Don’t Want the Prize.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983): 618–634.
Bendery, Jennifer. “Nancy Pelosi Predicts 6–3 Supreme Court Vote in Favor of Health Care Law.” Huffington Post, April 4, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/04/nancy-pelosi-health-care-aw_n_1402908.html.
Bennis, Warren. “Acting the Part of a Leader.” Businessweek, September 14, 2009, 80.
Bishop, Greg. “Pacquiao Stunned in Sixth Round.” New York Times, December 9, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/09/sports/juanmanuel-marquez-knocks-out-manny-pacquiao-in-sixth-round.html.
Bornstein, David. “The Dawn of Evidence-Based Budget.” New York Times, May 30, 2012, http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/worthy-of-government-funding-prove-it.
Boyle, Elizabeth, and Zur Shapira. “The Liability of Leading: Battling Aspiration and Survival Goals in Jeopardy’s Tournament of Champions.” Organization Science 23, no.4, (2012): 1110–1113.
Brooks, David. “The Fatal Conceit.” New York Times, October 26, 2009, A31.
Byers, Dylan. “Dick Morris Fesses Up.” Politico.com, November 13, 2012, http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/dick-morris-fesses-up-149453.html.
Cain, Daylian M., and Allan S. Detsky, “Everyone’s a Little Bit Biased (Even Physicians).” JAMA 299, no.24 (June 25, 2008): 2893–2895.
Camerer, Colin, and Dan Lovallo. “Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach.” American Economic Review 89, no 1 (1999): 306–318.
Campbell, Charles A. “A Decision Theory Model of Entrepreneurial Acts.” Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice 17, no. 1 (1992): 21–27.
Capen, Edward C., Robert V. Clapp, and William M. Campbell. “Competitive Bidding in High Risk Situations.” Journal of Petroleum Technology 23 (1971): 641–653.
Casscells, Ward, Arno Schoenberger, and Thomas Graboys “Interpretation by Physicians of Clinical Laboratory Results.” New England Journal of Medicine 299: 18 (1978) 999–1001.
Cauley, Leslie. “BellSouth Likes to Go It Alone.” USA Today, October 31, 2005, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/news/techpolicy/business/2005–10–31-bellsouth-mergers_x.htm?POE=TECISVA.
Chakrabortty, Aditya. “Haven’t the Politicians Desperately Scrambling to Form a Government Heard of the Winner’s Curse?” The Guardian, November 5, 2010, 5.
College Board. Student Descriptive Questionnaire. Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service, 1976–1977.
Corporate Finance Advisory and Mergers&Acquisitions. “Uncorking M&A: The 2013 Vintage.” J. P. Morgan, December 2012.
Craggs, Tommy. “Say-It-Ain’t-So Joe.” SF Weekly, July 6, 2005, http://www.sfweekly.com/2005–07–06/news/say-it-ain-t-so-joe.
Critchley, Simon, and Jamieson Webster. “The Gospel According to ‘Me’.” New York Times, June 30, 2013, SR8.
DeBondt, Walter F., and Richard H. Thaler. “Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective.” Handbooks in OR&MS 9 (1995): 385–410.
Dew, Nicholas, Saras Sarasvathy, Stuart Read, and Robert Wiltbank. “Affordable Loss: Behavioral Aspects of the Plunge Decision.” Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal 3 (2009): 105–126.
Diaz, Jaime. “Perils of Putting: Duffers, Take Heart. A New Study by the PGA Tour Reveals That When It Comes to Putting, the Pros Aren’t So Hot Either.” Sports Illustrated, April 3, 1989.
Dosi, Giovanni, and Dan Lovallo, “Rational Entrepreneurs or Optimistic Martyrs? Some Considerations on Technological Regimes, Corporate Entries, and the Evolutional Role of Decision Biases.” In Technological Innovation: Oversights and Foresights, edited by Raghu Garud, Praveen Nattar Nayyar, and Zur Baruch Shapira, 41–68. New York: Cambridge Innovation: Oversights and Foresights, edited by Raghu Garud, Praveen Nattar Nayyar, and Zur Baruch Shapira, 41–68. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
Dubner, Stephen J., and Steven D. Levitt. “A Star Is Made.” New York Times, May 7, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/magazine/07wwln_freak.html?pagewanted=all.
Dunne, Timothy, Mark J. Roberts, and Larry Samuelson. “Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit U. S. Manufacturing Industries.” Rand Journal of Economics 19, no. 4 (Winter 1988): 233–271.
Eckhardt, Roger. “Stan Ulam, John von Neumann, and the Monte Carlo Method.” Los Alamos Science 15, Special Issue (1987): 131–137.
Eichler, Jeremy. “String Theorist: Christian Tetzlaff Rethinks How a Violin Should Sound.” New Yorker, August 27, 2012, 34–39.
Ericsson, K. Anders, Ralf Th. Krampe, and Clemens Tesch-Rцmer. “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance.” Psychological Review 100, no. 3 (1993): 363–406.
Ericsson, K. Anders, Michael J. Prietula, and Edward T. Cokely, “The Making of an Expert,” Harvard Business Review, July—August 2007, 114–121.
Feynman, Richard P. “What Is and What Should Be the Role of Scientific Culture in Modern Society.” Address to the Galileo Symposium, Italy, 1964. In The Pleasure of Findings Things Out: The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman, 106–107. London: Penguin, 1999.
Fienberg, Stephen E. “When Did Bayesian Inference Become Bayesian?” Bayesian Analysis 1, no. 1 (2006): 1–40.Fisher, Kenneth L. “The Eight Biggest Mistakes Investors Make.” UT Today 1 (2007): 50–53.
Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Suren L. Buhl. “How (In) Accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?” Journal of the American Planning Association 71 (2005): 131–146.
“Former FEMA Chief Says Bush Was Engaged but Overconfident.” Associated Press, March 1, 2006, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,186546,00.html.
Fox, Jeremy. “Frequentist vs. Bayesian Statistics: Resources to Help You Choose,” http://oikosjournal.wordpress.com/2011/10/11/frequentistvs-bayesian-statistics-resources-to-help-you-choose/.
Friedman, Thomas L. “Obama’s Best-Kept Secrets.” New York Times, October 21, 2012, SR1.
Gapper, John. “McKinsey’s Model Springs a Leak.” Financial Times, March 10, 2011, 9.
Gawande, Atul. “The Bell Curve: What Happens When Patients Find out How Good Their Doctors Really Are?” New Yorker, December 6, 2004, 82–91.
Gino, Francesca, Zachariah Sharek, and Don A. Moore. “Keeping the Illusion of Control Under Control: Ceilings, Floors, and Imperfect Calibration.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processe 114, no. 2 (March 2011), 104–114.
Goffee, Robert, and Gareth Jones. “Managing Authenticity: The Great Paradox of Leadership.” Harvard Business Review (December 2005): 87–94.
Gollwitzer, Peter M., and Ronald F. Kinney. “Effects of Deliberative and Implemental Mind-sets on Illusion of Control.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56, no. 4 (1989): 531–542.Goodstein, Laurie. “Serenity Prayer Skeptic Now Credits Niebuhr.” New York Times, November 28, 2009, A11.
Gopnik, Adam. “Life Studies: What I Learned When I Learned to Draw.” New Yorker, June 27, 2011, 56–63.
“Greater Prudhoe Bay,” BP Fact Sheet, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/STAGING/global_assets/downloads/A/abp_wwd_alaska_prudhoe_bay_fact_sheet.pdf.
Hambrick, David Z., and Elizabeth J. Meinz. “Sorry, Strivers: Talent Matters.” New York Times, November 20, 2011, SR12.
Hardy, Quentin. “Intel Tries to Secure Its Footing Beyond PCs,” New York Times, April 15, 2013, B1.
Harford, Tim. “Screening: It’s All in the Numbers.” Financial Times/FT.com Magazine, December 10/11, 2011.
Hayward, Mathew L. A., Dean A. Shepherd, and Dale Griffin. “A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship.” Management Science 52, no. 2 (2006): 160–172.
Headd, Brian. “Redefining Business Success: Distinguishing Between Closure and Failure.” Journal Small Business Economics. 1 (1) (2004): 51–61.
Hogarth, Robin M., and Natalia Karelaia. “Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgment.” Organization Science 23 (2012): 1733–1747.
Humphrey, Elizabeth King. “Be Sad and Succeed.” Scientific American, March 3, 2010, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=besad-and-succeed.
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review 80 (1973): 237–257.
Kahneman, Daniel, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. “Before You Make that Big Decision…” Harvard Business Review (June 2011): 51–60.
Keogh, Brian. “Harrington and the Man with Two Brains.” Irish Golf News, March 6, 2013, http://www.irishgolfdesk.com/news-files/2013/3/6/harrington-and-the-man-with-two-brains.html.
Knaup, Amy E. “Survival and Longevity in the Business Employment Dynamics data.” Monthly Labor Review. Vol. 128, Iss. 5, (May 2005): 50–56.
Kopecki, Dawn, Clea Benson, and Phil Mattingly. “Dimon Says Overconfidence Fueled Loss He Can’t Defend.” Bloomberg News, June 14, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012–06–14/dimon-saysoverconfidence-fueled-loss-he-can-t-defend.html.
Kreps, Daniel. “Lennon’s ‘A Day in the Life’ Lyrics Sell for долларов1.2 Million.” Rolling Stone, June 18, 2010, http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/lennons-a-day-in-the-life-lyrics-sell-for-1–2-million-20100618.
Kroichick, Ron. “Giants’ Wilson Hopes Hitters Fear the Beard.” San Francisco Chronicle, October 7, 2010, http://www.sfgate.com/sports/kroichick/article/Giants-Wilson-hopes-hitters-fear-the-beard-3171420.php.
Kruger, J. “Lake Wobegone Be Gone! The ‘Below-average’ Effect and the Egocentric Nature of Comparative Ability Judgments.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (1999): 221–232.
“Lance Armstrong: ‘Impossible to Win Without Doping’.” USA Today, June 28, 2013, http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/cycling/2013/06/28/lance-armstrong-impossible-win-tour-de-france-doping/2471413/.
Langer, Ellen J. “The Illusion of Control.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32 (1975): 311–328.
Latour, Almar, and Shawn Young. “Two Who May Pop the Question to AT&T Wireless – Intent on Wireless Expansion, SBC Communications’ Whitacre Takes Risks Seeking Acquisitions.” Wall Street Journal, February 10, 2004, B1.
Leonhardt, David. “Science and Art at Odds on the Field of Dreams.” New York Times, August 29, 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/28/sports/28iht-THEORIES.html.
Lewis, Michael. “In Defense of the Boom.” New York Times Magazine, October 27, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/27/magazine/27DEFENSE.html.
“Out of Their Tree.” Sports Illustrated, March 1, 2004, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1031308/index.htm.
Lion, Valйrie. “L’Entretien: Bertrand Piccard ‘Explorer, c’est aller au-delа des йvidences’.” L’Express no. 3187, August 1, 2012, 8–11.
Loomis, Carol J. “Why Carly’s Bet Is Failing.” Fortune, February 7, 2005, 50–64.
Lovallo, Dan, Carmina Clarke, and Colin Camerer. “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View: Two Empirical Tests of Case-based Decision Making.” Strategic Management Journal 33, no. 5 (May 2012): 496–512.
Lovallo, Dan, and Daniel Kahneman. “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’ Decisions.” Harvard Business Review (July 2003): 56–63.
Lovallo, Dan, and Olivier Sibony. “The Case for Behavioral Strategy,” McKinsey Quarterly 2 (Spring 2010): 30–43.
Lovallo, Dan P., and Olivier Sibony. “Distortions and Deceptions in Strategic Decisions.” McKinsey Quarterly 1 (February 2006): 19–29.
Lovett, Ian. “Tatooed Guy Pivotal in Armstrong Case,” New York Times, October 18, 2012, B11.
Lunsford, J. Lynn, and Daniel Michaels. “Bet on Huge Plane Trips up Airbus.” Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2006, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115027552490479926.html.
Mandard, Stйphane. “Lance Armstrong: Le Tour de France? Impossible de gagner sans dopage.” Le Monde, June 29, 2013, Sport&Forme, 5.
“Manny Pacquiao Will Not Give Up Boxing, Despite Pleas From Family.” BBC, December 10, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/boxing/20666106.
March, James G., and Zur Shapira. “Managerial Perceptions on Risk and Risk-Taking.” Management Science 33 (1987): 1404–1418.
“Variable Risk Preference and the Focus of Attention.” Psychological Science 99, no. 1 (1992): 172–183.
Martin, Andrew D., et al. “Competing Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decision Making.” Perspectives on Politics 2 (2004): 763.