Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Фергюсон Ниал (Нил)

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1258

Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo), «My mother is not expendable. Your mother is not expendable», Twitter, March 24, 2020, 9:43 a.m., https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242477029083295746.

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1259

Thomas J. Kniesner and W. Kip Viscusi, «The Value of a Statistical Life», Vanderbilt Law Research Paper No. 1915 (May 16, 2019), available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3379967.

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1260

Greg Ip, «Economics vs. Epidemiology: Quantifying the Trade-Off», Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/economicsvsepidemiology-quantifying-the-trade-off-11586982855.

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1261

Andrew Scott, «How Aging Societies Should Respond to Pandemics», Project Syndicate, April 22, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-aging-societies-should-respondtopandemicsbyandrew-scott-202004.

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1262

Я благодарен Эдварду Лэзиру за разъяснение этой проблемы. Если вам интересен альтернативный взгляд, согласно которому «с экономической точки зрения наш отклик соответствовал угрозе, исходящей от вируса», см.: Nicholas A. Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live (New York: Little, Brown Spark, 2020), pp. 304f.

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1263

Christos A. Makridis and Jonathan Hartley, «The Cost of COVID-19: A Rough Estimate of the 2020 U. S. GDP Impact», Mercatus Center Special Edition Policy Brief, March 23, 2020, доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559139.

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1264

Jay Boice, «Experts Say the Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But the Trajectory Is Still Unclear», FiveThirtyEight, March 26, 2020, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectoryisstill-unclear/.

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1265

Roman Marchant et al., «Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions», May 26, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734. For a critique of the models, see Andrea Saltelli et al., «Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto», Nature 582 (June 24, 2020), pp. 482–484, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-018129.

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1266

Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), pp. E238 – E244, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.

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1267

«EuroMOMO Bulletin», European Mortality Monitoring Project, http://www.euromomo.eu/; «Weekly Death Statistics: Dramatic Rise in Deaths in Early Spring», Eurostat, July 21, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Weekly_death_statistics &stable#Dramatic_rise_in_deaths_in_early_spring.

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1268

«Tracking COVID-19 Excess Deaths Across Countries», Economist, July 15, 2020, https://www.econo mist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid19excess-deaths-across-countries; Jin Wu et al., «Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak», New York Times, July 31, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html; «Coronavirus Tracked: The Latest Figures as Countries Fight COVID-19 Resurgence», Financial Times, August 18, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441.

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1269

Об очень спорном вопросе приписывания смертей COVID-19 и иным причинам избыточной смертности, см.: John Lee, «The Way ‘COVID Deaths’ Are Being Counted Is a National Scandal», Spectator, May 30, 2020, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-countedisanational-scandal; David Spiegelhalter, «COVID and ‘Excess Deaths’ in the Week Ending April 10th», Medium, April 24, 2020, https://medium.com/wintoncentre/covid-and-excess-deathsinthe-week-ending-april-10th-20ca7d355ec4.

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1270

Sarah Caul et al., «Deaths Registered Weekly in England and Wales, Provisional: Week Ending 27 March 2020», UK Office for National Statistics, April 7, 2020, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020#deaths-registeredbyweek.

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1271

Chris Giles, «UK Coronavirus Deaths More than Double Official Figure, According to FT Study», Financial Times, April 21, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05–43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab.

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1272

«COVID-19 Daily Deaths», NHS England, https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid19daily-deaths/.

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1273

Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall): «Глядя на данные @ONS о смертях в Европе, становится совершенно понятно, насколько плохи дела в Англии», Twitter, July 30, 2020, 11:15 a.m., https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1288886067039535104.

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1274

John Burn-Murdoch and Chris Giles, «UK Suffers Second-Highest Death Rate from Coronavirus», Financial Times, May 28, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4–9a82-648ffde71bf0.

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1275

Harry Kennard (@HarryKennard), «ONS have updated their weekly mortality figures up to April 10th for England and Wales», Twitter, April 21, 2020, 2:59 a.m., https://twitter.com/HarryKennard/status/1252522319903436800.

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1276

«Coronavirus Tracked», Financial Times.

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1277

Burn-Murdoch and Giles, «UK Suffers Second-Highest Death Rate».

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1278

«Pneumonia and Influenza Surveillance from the National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System», CDC FluView Interactive, https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html; «COVIDView Weekly Summary», COVIDView, CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html? CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcovid-data%2Fcovidview.html. См. также: Paul Overberg and Jon Kamp, «U. S. Deaths Are Up Sharply, Though COVID-19’s Precise Toll Is Murky», Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-exact-tollismurky-thoughusdeaths-areupsharply-11589555652.

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1279

Jeremy Samuel Faust and Carlos del Rio, «Assessment of Deaths from COVID-19 and from Seasonal Influenza», JAMA Internal Medicine 180, no. 8 (May 14, 2020), pp. 1045–1046, https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.2306.

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1280

Robin Martin, «COVID vs. U. S. Daily Average Cause of Death», Flourish, April 21, 2020, https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/.