Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Фергюсон Ниал (Нил)

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1088

Joshua Geleris et al., «Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19», NEJM, June 18, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2012410; Alexandre B. Cavalcanti et al., «Hydroxychloroquine With or Without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014; David R. Boulware et al.,

«A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638.

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1089

«COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker», Faster Cures, Milken Institute, August 14, 2020, https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org/. См. в целом: Tung Thanh Le et al., «The COVID-19 Vaccine Development Landscape», Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 19 (April 9, 2020), pp. 305–306, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41573-020-000735.

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1090

Stuart A. Thompson, «How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?» New York Times, April 30, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html.

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1091

Nicholas Kumleben, R. Bhopal, T. Czypionka, L. Gruer, R. Kock, Justin Stebbing, and F. L. Stigler, «Test, Test, Test for COVID-19 Antibodies: The Importance of Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Powers», Public Health 185 (August 2020), pp. 88–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.06.006.

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1092

Albert-László Barabási, Network Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), chap. 10.

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1093

За эту точку зрения я благодарен Сесилии Масколо из Кембриджского университета.

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1094

Matthew J. Ferrari et al., «Network Frailty and the Geometry of Herd Immunity», Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273, no. 1602 (November 7, 2006), pp. 2743–2748, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3636. См. также: M. Gabriela Gomes et al., «Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold», MedRxiv, May 21, 2020, pp. 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.

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1095

Tom Britton, Frank Ball, and Pieter Trapman, «The Disease-Induced Herd Immunity Level for COVID-19 Is Substantially Lower than the Classical Herd Immunity Level», Quantitative Biology: Populations and Evolution, May 8, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085. См. также: Ricardo Aguas et al., «Herd Immunity Thresholds for SARS-CoV2 Estimated from Unfolding Epidemics», MedRxiv, July 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762.

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1096

Charles Musselwhite, Erel Avineri, and Yusak Susilo, «Editorial JTH 16-The Coronavirus Disease COVID-19 and Its Implications for Transport and Health», Journal of Transport & Health 16 (March 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2020.100853.

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1097

Michael Laris, «Scientists Know Ways to Help Stop Viruses from Spreading on Airplanes. They’re Too Late for This Pandemic», Washington Post, April 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/scientists-think-they-know-waystocombat-virusesonairplanes-theyre-too-late-for-this-pandemic/2020/04/20/83279318-76ab-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html.

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1098

Министерство торговли США, Управление международной торговли, Национальное бюро путешествий и туризма.

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1099

«Historical Flight Status», FlightStats by Cerium, https://www.flightstats.com/v2/historical-flight/subscribe.

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1100

Мой спор на эту тему с Дэниелом Беллом см.: Daniel A. Bell, «Did the Chinese Government Deliberately Export COVID-19 to the Rest of the World?» Danielabell.com, April 21, 2020, https://danielabell.com/2020/04/21/did-the-chinese-government-deliberately-export-covid19tothe-restofthe-world/; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: An Update», Niallferguson.com, April 21, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinpinganupdate; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: Another Update», Niallferguson.com, May 26, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinping-another-update.

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1101

Matteo Chinazzi et al., «The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Outbreak», MedRxiv, February 11, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261.

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1102

Steve Eder et al., «430,000 People Have Traveled from China to U. S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced», New York Times, April 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html.

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1103

Phillip Connor, «More than NineinTen People Worldwide Live in Countries with Travel Restrictions amid COVID-19», Fact Tank, Pew Research Center, April 1, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/01/more-than-nineinten-people-worldwide-liveincountries-with-travel-restrictions-amid-covid19/; Anthony Faiola, «The Virus That Shut Down the World», Washington Post, June 26, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/coronavirus-pandemic-globalization/?itid= hp_hp-banner-main_virus-shutdown-630pm.

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1104

«Relative Risk of Importing a Case of 2019-nCoV», Google Data Studio, August 17, 2020, https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/3ffd36c3-0272-4510-a140-39e288a9f15c/page/U5lCB. См. также: Matteo Chinazzi et al., «Estimating the Risk of Sustained Community Transmission of COVID-19 Outside Mainland China», March 11, 2020, pp. 1-11, https://www.mobs-lab.org/uploads/6/7/8/7/6787877/estimating_the_risk_of_sustained_community_transmission_of_covid-19_outside_china.pdf.

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1105

Javier Salas and Mariano Zafra, «An Analysis of Three COVID-19 Outbreaks: How They Happened and How They Can Be Avoided», El País English: Science & Tech, June 17, 2020, https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/20200617/ananalysisofthree-covid19outbreaks-how-they-happened-and-how-they-canbeavoided.html; Liu Xiaopeng and Zhang Sisen, «COVID-19: Face Masks and Human-to-Human Transmission», Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 14, no. 4 (March 29, 2020), pp. 472–473, https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12740.

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1106

Lara Goscé and Anders Johansson, «Analysing the Link Between Public Transport Use and Airborne Transmission: Mobility and Contagion in the London Underground», Environmental Health 17, no. 84 (December 4, 2018), pp. 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-018-04275; Jeffrey E. Harris, «The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City», NBER Working Paper No. 27021 (August 2020), https://doi.org/10.3386/w27021; Stephen M. Kissler et al., «Reductions in Commuting Mobility Predict Geographic Differences in SARS-CoV2 Prevalence in New York City», Harvard School of Public Health Scholarly Articles (2020), pp. 1-15, http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn3: HUL.In stRepos:42665370.