Шум. Несовершенство человеческих суждений - Оливье Сибони

218 тест Дайаны Халперн «Оценка критического мышления»…: Heather A. Butler, “Halpern Critical Thinking Assessment Predicts Real-World Outcomes of Critical Thinking”, Applied Cognitive Psychology 26, no. 5 (2012): 721–729.

219 могли бы определить хорошего прогнозиста…: Uriel Haran, Ilana Ritov, and Barbara Mellers, “The Role of Actively Open-Minded Thinking in Information Acquisition, Accuracy, and Calibration”, Judgment and Decision Making 8, no. 3 (2013): 188–201.

220 «активного открытого мышления»…: Haran, Ritov, and Mellers, “Role of Actively Open-Minded Thinking”.

221 можно научить…: J. Baron, “Why Teach Thinking? An Essay”, Applied Psychology: An International Review 42 (1993): 191–214; J. Baron, The Teaching of Thinking: Thinking and Deciding, 2nd ed. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 127–148.

Глава 19

222 их основные выводы…: Тем, кто желает ознакомиться с блестящим обзором, рекомендуем Jack B. Soll et al., “A User’s Guide to Debiasing”, in The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, ed. Gideon Keren and George Wu, vol. 2 (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2015), 684.

223 «Зеленую книгу»…: HM Treasury, The Green Book: Central Government Guidance on Appraisal and Evaluation (London: UK Crown, 2018), https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads /attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf.

224 толчок к действию…: Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008).

225 бустинг…: Ralph Hertwig and Till Grüne-Yanoff, “Nudging and Boosting: Steering or Empowering Good Decisions”, Perspectives on Psychological Science 12, no. 6 (2017).

226 образование – мера полезная…: Geoffrey T. Fong et al., “The Effects of Statistical Training on Thinking About Everyday Problems”, Cognitive Psychology 18, no. 3 (1986): 253–292.

227 точно так же способен проявлять чрезмерную уверенность…: Willem A. Wagenaar and Gideon B. Keren, “Does Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts”, Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments (1986): 87–103.

228 снижали количество допущенных промахов…: Carey K. Morewedge et al., “Debiasing Decisions: Improved Decision Making with a Single Training Intervention”, Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences 2, no. 1 (2015): 129–140.

229 применяли полученные навыки…: Anne-Laure Sellier et al., “Debiasing Training Transfers to Improve Decision Making in the Field”, Psychological Science 30, no. 9 (2019): 1371–1379.

230 мертвая зона когнитивных искажений…: Emily Pronin et al., “The Bias Blind Spot: Perceptions of Bias in Self Versus Others”, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 28, no. 3 (2002): 369–381.

231 искажения, способные повлиять…: Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony, “Before You Make That Big Decision…”, Harvard Business Review 89, no. 6 (June 2011): 50–60.

232 чек-лист… имеет долгую историю…: Atul Gawande, Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2010).

233 упрощенный перечень контрольных вопросов…: Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, “Agency Checklist: Regulatory Impact Analysis”, no date, www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/inforeg/inforeg/regpol/RIA_Checklist.pdf.

234 мы привели…: Данный чек-лист заимствован (и частично адаптирован) из Daniel Kahneman et al., “Before You Make That Big Decision”, Harvard Business Review.

235 получить «добро» на его применение…: См. Gawande, Checklist Manifesto.

Глава 20

236 «человеческим фактором»…: R. Stacey, “A Report on the Erroneous Fingerprint Individualisation in the Madrid Train Bombing Case”, Journal of Forensic Identification 54 (2004): 707–718.

237 на сайте ФБР…: Michael Specter, “Do Fingerprints Lie?”, The New Yorker, May 27, 2002. Добавлено выделение курсивом.

238 Цитируем Дрора…: I. E. Dror and R. Rosenthal, “Meta-analytically Quantifying the Reliability and Biasability of Forensic Experts”, Journal of Forensic Science 53 (2008): 900–903.

239 В ходе первого эксперимента…: I. E. Dror, D. Charlton, and A. E. Pе́ron, “Contextual Information Renders Experts Vulnerable to Making Erroneous Identifications”, Forensic Science International 156 (2006): 74–78.

240 Во время второго эксперимента…: I. E. Dror amd D. Charlton, “Why Experts Make Errors”, Journal of Forensic Identification 56 (2006): 600–616.

241 дактилоскопист…: E. Dror and S. A. Cole, “The Vision in ‘Blind’ Justice: Expert Perception, Judgment, and Visual Cognition in Forensic Pattern Recognition”, Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 17 (2010): 161–167, 165. См. также I. E. Dror, “A Hierarchy of Expert Performance (HEP)”, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition (2016): 1–6.

242 В одном из исследований…: I. E. Dror et al., “Cognitive Issues in Fingerprint Analysis: Inter- and Intra-Expert Consistency and the Effect of a ‘Target’ Comparison”, Forensic Science International 208 (2011): 10–17.

243 Позднее проводилось еще одно независимое исследование…: B. T. Ulery, R. A. Hicklin, M. A. Roberts, and J. A. Buscaglia, “Changes in Latent Fingerprint Examiners’ Markup Between Analysis and Comparison”, Forensic Science International 247 (2015): 54–61.

244 Даже анализ ДНК…: I. E. Dror and G. Hampikian, “Subjectivity and Bias in Forensic DNA Mixture Interpretation”, Science and Justice 51 (2011): 204–208.

245 эксперты частенько получают ее…: M. J. Saks, D. M. Risinger, R. Rosenthal, and W. C. Thompson, “Context Effects in Forensic Science: A Review and Application of the Science of Science to Crime Laboratory Practice in the United States”, Science Justice Journal of Forensic Science Society 43 (2003): 77–90.

246 верификатор знает…: President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), Report to the President: Forensic Science in Criminal Courts: Ensuring Scientific Validity of Feature-Comparison Methods (Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President, PCAST, 2016).

247 Позднее, при расследовании происшествия…: Stacey, “Erroneous Fingerprint”.

248 уважаемый независимый эксперт…: Dror and Cole, “Vision in ‘Blind’ Justice”.

249 наслоение искажающих эффектов…: I. E. Dror, “Biases in Forensic Experts”, Science 360 (2018): 243.

250 Порой дактилоскопист может изменить свое суждение…: Dror and Charlton, “Why Experts Make Errors”.

251 в 2012 году было проведено масштабное исследование…: B. T. Ulery, R. A. Hicklin, J. A. Buscaglia, and M. A. Roberts, “Repeatability and Reproducibility of Decisions by Latent Fingerprint Examiners”, PLoS One 7 (2012).

252 «Проекта Невиновность»…: Innocence Project, “Overturning Wrongful Convictions Involving Misapplied Forensics”, Misapplication of Forensic Science (2018): 1–7, www.innocenceproject.org/causes/misapplication-forensic-science. См. также S. M. Kassin, I. E. Dror, J. Kukucka, and L. Butt, “The Forensic Confirmation Bias: Problems, Perspectives, and Proposed Solutions”, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 2 (2013): 42–52.

253 подробный обзор…: PCAST, Report to the President.

254 отчета о масштабном исследовании точности дактилоскопической идентификации…: B. T. Ulery, R. A. Hicklin, J. Buscaglia, and M. A. Roberts, “Accuracy and Reliability of Forensic Latent Fingerprint