Наука, стратегия и война (Стратегия и история) - Frans P.B. Osinga

62 Ibid., p. 202.

63 Holsti, op. cit., pp. 36–9.

64 Kaldor (2000), op. cit., p. 6.

65 Ralph Peters, ‘The New Warrior Class’, Parameters, Summer 1994, p. 16. See also his book Fighting for the Future, Mechanicsburg, PA: Stackpole Books, 1999.

66 Van Creveld, op. cit., pp. 142–3.

67 Ibid., p. 27.

68 See for instance Barry Posen, ‘The War for Kosovo; Serbia’s Political–Military Strategy’, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 4 (2000), pp. 39–84; I. Arreguin-Toft, ‘How the Weak Win; A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict’, International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1 (2001), pp. 93–128; R.H. Robert Scales, ‘Adaptive Enemies: Dealing With the Strategic Threat after 2010’, Strategic Review, Vol. 27, No. 1 (1999), pp. 5–14; Steven Metz, ‘Strategic Asymmetry’, Military Review, July–August 2001, pp. 23–31, Stephen Biddle, ‘The Past as Prologue: Assessing Theories of Future Warfare’, Security Studies, 8, No. 1 (1998), pp. 1–74; Charles Dunlap, ‘Technology: Recomplicating Moral Life for the Nation’s Defenders’, Parameters, Autumn 1999, pp. 24–53.

69 Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, Unrestricted Warfare, Beijing: 1999, p. 156. For an overview of the debate on this topic and some notable studies, see also my chapter titled ‘Asymmetric Warfare; Rediscovering the Essence of Strategy’, in John Olson (ed.), Asymmetric Warfare, Oslo: 2002.

70 See John Lynn, Battle, A History of Combat and Culture, Boulder, CO: 2003, West-view Press, in particular the Epilogue; Christopher Coker, Waging War Without Warriors, London: IISS, 2002; and Phillip Bobbit, The Shield of Achilles, London: Penguin, 2002, in particular Prologue and Chapters 10–13; and any of the articles by Ralph Peters, for instance ‘The New Warrior Class’, Parameters, Summer 1994, pp. 16–26. For a lengthy rebuttal and an argument for continuity, see Colin Gray, ‘Clausewitz, History, and the Future Strategic World’, paper for a National Intelligence Council Workshop on ‘The Changing Nature of Warfare’, Washington, D.C., 25 May 2004. Online. Available at: www.cia.gov/NKIC_2020 (accessed 3 March 2005).

71 See William Lind, Keith Nightengale, John Schmitt, Joseph Sutton, Gary Wilson, ‘The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation’, Marine Corps Gazette, Oct. 1989, pp. 22–6. See for a restatement in 1994 of this idea Thomas X. Hammes, ‘The Evolution of War: The Fourth Generation’, Marine Corps Gazette, September 1994. This is a much simplified rendering of the argument.

72 See for instance Grant T. Hammond, ‘The Paradoxes of War’, Joint Forces Quarterly, Spring 1994, pp. 7–16; Thomas X. Hammes, The Sling and the Stone, St Paul, MN: Zenith Press, 2004; Gary Wilson, Greg Wilcox and Chet Richards, Fourth Generation Warfare & OODA Loop Implications of the Iraqi Insurgency, presentation, www.belisarius.com, site (accessed 5 January 2005); or Myke Cole, ‘Confronting the 4th Generation Enemy’, Journal of Counterterrorism & Homeland Security, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 22–4; or Tony Corn, ‘World War IV As Fourth Generation Warfare’, Policy Review, January 2006, for a small sampling of this strand of thought. For a timely balanced critical review of the 4GW school of thought, see the August 2005 issue of Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 26, No. 2, dedicated to this topic.

73 See Miroslav Nincic and Joseph Lepgold (ed.), Being Useful, Policy Relevance and International Relations Theory, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1998, pp. 25–6.

74 Colin S. Gray, Modern Strategy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999, p. 91.

75 Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999 [1976], p. xi.