Принцип «черного ящика» - Мэтью Сайед

90 Подробнее про ошибки, связанные с трактовкой анализа очень маленьких фрагментов ДНК, см.: David Bentley QC. DNA and Case Preparation // Law Society Gazette. 2015. January.

91 Информация о судебных ошибках взята из материалов проекта «Невиновность», государственных баз данных и различных бесед.

92 Информация о Майкле Ширли взята из судебных документов, отчетов и двух бесед с его адвокатом Анитой Бромли.

93 Проект «Невиновность».

94 Samuel R. Gross et al. Exonerations in the United States, 1989 through 2003 // Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology. Vol. 95. 2005. № 2. P. 523–560.

95 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.

96 Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter. When Prophecy Fails. Eastford, CT: Martino Fine Books, 2009.

97 Результаты опроса взяты из: Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson, Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions and Hurtful Acts. L.: Pinter & Martin, 2013.

98 Elliot Aronson, Judson Mills. The Effect of Severity of Initiation on Liking for a Group // Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology. Vol. 59. 1959. September.

99 Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson. Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me).

100 Charles Lord, Lee Ross, Mark Lepper. Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarisation: The Effects of Poor Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 37. 1979.

101 Сайт проекта «Невиновность».

102 Kathryn Schulz. Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. L.: Portobello Books, 2011.

103 Цит. по: Tavris, Aronson, Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me).

104 Schulz. Being Wrong.

105 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/magazine/dna-evidence-lake-county.html?_r=0.

106 Там же.

107 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.

108 Там же.

109 Проект «Невиновность».

110 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.

111 Tavris, Aronson. Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me).

112 John Banja. Medical Errors and Medical Narcissism. Burlington, MA: Jones & Bartlett, 2005.

113 Там же.

114 Там же.

115 Jeff Stone and Nicholas C. Fernandez. How Behaviour Shapes Attitudes: Cognitive Dissonance Processes. In: William D. Crano and Radmila Prislin (ed.). Attitudes and Attitude Change. N. Y.: Psychology Press, 2013.

116 http://www.tonyblairoffice.org/news/entry/iraq-syria-and-the-middle-east-an-essay-by-tony-blair/.

117 http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/15/open-letter-to-ben-ber-nanke/.

118 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014–10–02/fed-critics-say-10-letter-warning-inflation-still-right.

119 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014–10–02/fed-critics-say-10-letter-warning-inflation-still-right.

120 Philip E. Tetlock. Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006.

121 Sydney Finkelstein. Why Smart Executives Fail: And What You Can Learn from Their Mistakes. N. Y.: Portfolio/Penguin, 2013.

122 Terrance Odean. Are Investors Reluctant to Admit Their Losses? // Journal of Finance. 1998. October.

123 Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Brilliant Mistakes: Finding Success on the Far Side of Failure. Philadelphia: Wharton Digital Press, 2011.

124 Karl Popper. The Poverty of Historicism, L.: Routledge, 2002. (На рус. яз.: Поппер К. Нищета историцизма. М., 1993. Перевод С. Кудриной.)

125 Описано в кн.: Pronovost. Safe Patients, Smart Hospitals.

126 David Hilfiker. Facing Our Mistakes // New England Journal of Medicine. Vol. 310. 1984. № 2. P. 118–122.

127 C. E. Milch et al. Voluntary Electronic Reporting of Medical Errors and Adverse Events: An Analysis of 92,547 Reports from 26 Acute Care Hospitals // Journal of General Internal Medicine. Vol. 21. 2006. № 2. P. 165–170.

128 Pronovost. Safe Patients, Smart Hospitals.

129 История Лысенко изложена в десятках статей и книг, включая: Valery N. Soyfer. Lysenko and the Tragedy of Soviet Science, New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2006 и Nils Roll-Hansen. The Lysenko Effect: The Politics of Science. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 2004.

130 http://tauruspet.med.yale.edu/staff/edm42/IUPUI-website/emorris.tar/ emorris/emorris/Ethics%2 °Course%2009/Journal%20articles/lysenko-nature-rev-genetics2001-nrg0901_723a.pdf.

131 Jasper Becker. Hungry Ghosts: Mao’s Secret Famine. N. Y.: Simon & Schuster, 1997.

132 http://www.haydenplanetarium.org/tyson/watch/2008/06/19/george-bush-and-star-names.

133 http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/16/another-day-another-quote-fab-ricated-by-neil-degrasse-tyson/.

134 http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/16/neil-tysons-fi nal-words-on-his-quote-fabrications-my-bad/

135 Giuliana Mazzoni and Amina Memon. Imagination Can Create False Autobiographical Memories // Psychological Science. Vol. 14. 2003. № 2. P. 186–188.

136 Elizabeth F. Loftus, John C. Palmer. Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction: An Example of the Interaction Between Language and Memory // Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior. Vol. 13. 1974. P. 585–589.

137 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4177082.stm.

138 Сайт проекта «Невиновность».

139 Gary L. Wells, Nancy K. Steblay, Jennifer E. Dysart. A Test of the Simultaneous vs Sequential Lineup Methods: An Initial Report of the AJS National Eyewitness Identification Field Studies // American Judicature So ciety. Стоит отметить, что стоимость проведения этих реформ сравнительно мала.

14 °Cайт проекта «Невиновность».

141 http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2002–09–29/news/0209290340_1_ jogger-case-jogger-attack-matias-reyes.

142 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.

143 http://www.miamiherald.com/incoming/article1953372.html.

144 Committee on Identifying the Needs of the Forensic Science Community National Research Council, Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States, отчет, 2009.

145 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/opinion/why-our-memory-fails-us.html.

146 Shai Danziger, Jonathan Levav, Liora Avnaim-Pesso. Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

147 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2011/04/11/ justice-is-served-but-more-so-after-lunch-how-food-breaks-sway-the-decisions-of-judges/#.VYaU80Yk-So.

148 http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014–06–10/news/chi-dna-links-murder-and-rape-of-holly-staker-11-to-second-murder-8-years-la-ter-20140610_1_holly-staker-dna-evidence-dna-match.

149 Интервью взято автором.

150 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-juan-rivera-shoes-met-20141210-story.html#page=1.

151 См. лекцию Стива Джонса: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=for_ WIKgdWg. See also Owen Barder: http://www.owen.org/blog/4018.

152 Включая Карла Поппера и Фридриха Хайека.

153 Tim Harford. Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure. N. Y.: Little, Brown, 2011.

154 Paul Omerod, wn, 2011lway

155 Terence Kealey. The Economic Laws of Scientific Research. N. Y.: Palgrave Macmillan, 1996.

156 Taleb Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, N. Y.: Penguin, 2013. (На рус. яз.: Талеб Н. Н. Антихрупкость. М.: КоЛибри, Азбука-Аттикус, 2013. Перевод Н. Караева.)

157 См.: Jonah Lehrer. The Decisive Moment. Edinburgh: Canongate, 2007. P. 47.

158 Daniel Kahneman. Thinking, Fast and Slow. N. Y.: Penguin, 2012. (На рус. яз.: Канеман Д. Думай медленно… решай быстро. М., 2013. Перевод А. Андреева, Ю. Деглиной и Н. Парфеновой.)

159 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27579790.

160 Peter Sims. Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge from Small Discoveries. N. Y.: Random House Business, 2012.

161 Там же.

162 Ryan Babineaux, John Krumboltz. Fail Fast, Fail Often: How Losing Can Help You Win. N. Y.: Tarcher, 2014.

163 David Bayles, Ted Orland. Art and Fear: Observations on the Perils (and Rewards) of Artmaking. N. Y.: Image Continuum Press, 2001.

164 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY3OtMBCEKY.

165 Eric Ries. The Lean Startup: How Constant Innovation Creates Radically Successful Businesses. N. Y.: Portfolio/Penguin, 2011.

166 Там же.

167 Там же.

168 Jim Collins, Morten T. Hansen. Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck – Why Some Thrive Despite Them All. N. Y.: Random House Business, 2011.

169 Peter Sims. Little Bets.

170 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27579790.

171 В беседе с автором.

172 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1470513/.

173 Данные проекта Disability Adjusted Life Years, оценка результатов продолжается.

174 Toby Ord. The Moral Imperative toward Cost-Effectiveness in Global Health // Center for Global Development. 2013. March.

175 http://lesswrong.com/lw/h6c/taking_charity_seriously_toby_ord_talk_ on_charity/.

176 https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/.

177 Scared Straight! («Испугаться и исправиться»), док. фильм, реж. Арнольд Шапиро, 1978 г.

178 «Испугаться и исправиться», комментарий Питера Фалька.

179 См.: James Finckenauer. Scared Straight: The Panacea Phenomenon Revisited. L.: Waveland Pv. Inc, 1998.

180 Peter W. Greenwood. Changing Lives: Delinquency Prevention as Crime Control Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007.

181 Цит. по фильму «Испугаться и исправиться».

182 Диаграммы взяты (с адаптацией) из Test, Learn Adapt © Crown, 2012 June, лицензировано на условиях Открытой правительственной лицензии. Воспроизводится с разрешения правообладателя.

183 Ben Goldacre. Bad Science. N. Y.: Harper Perennial, 2009.

184 Mark Henderson. The Geek Manifesto: Why Science Matters. N. Y.: Bantam Press, 2012.

185 См.: Ben Goldacre. Bad Pharma: How Drug Companies Mislead Doctors and Harm Patients. N. Y.: Faber & Faber, 2014.

186 Я благодарен Джиму Манци за то, что он изложил эти аргументы в своей книге Uncontrolled (N. Y.: Basic Books, 2012).

187 Jonathan Sheperd. The Production and Management of Evidence for Public Service Reform in Evidence and Policy.

188 Интервью взято автором.

189 James Finckenauer. Scared Straight.

190 Интервью взято автором.

191 Там же.

192 Там же.

193 См.: James Finckenauer, Scott O. Lilienfeld. Scientifically Unsupported and Supported Interventions for Childhood Psychopathology: A Summary // Pediatrics. Vol. 115. 2005. № 3. P. 761–764; а также Daniel P. Mears. Towards Rational and Evidence-based Crime Policy // Journal of Criminal Justice. Vol. 35. 2007. № 6. P. 667–682.

194 Приз Сильвермана.

195 http://reclaimingfutures.org/juvenile-justice-reform-scared-straight-facts-vs-hype.

196 A. Petrosino, C. Turpin-Petrosino, M. E. Hollis-Peel, J. G. Lavenberg. Scared Straight and Other Juvenile Awareness Programs for Preventing Juvenile Delinquency: A Systematic Review.

197 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/nyregion/23solve.html.

198 http://www.northjersey.com/news/neighbor-sentenced-in-decades-old-ridgefield-park-murder-1.1238173.

199 Воспроизводится с разрешения Эстер Дюфло.

200 https://www.ted.com/speakers/esther_duflo.

201 Jeffrey Sachs. The End of Poverty: How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime (N. Y.: Penguin, 2005).

202 William Easterly. The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good. N. Y.: Penguin Books, 2007.

203 Tim Harford. Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure. N. Y.: Little, Brown, 2011.

204 https://www.ted.com/speakers/esther_duflo.

205 Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo. Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty. N. Y.: Penguin, 2012.

206 Alan G. Robinson, Sam Stern. Corporate Creativity: How Innovation and Improvement Actually Happen. Oakland, CA: Berrett-Koehler, 1998.

207 См.: Jim Manzi. Uncontrolled.

208 https://hbr.org/2009/02/how-to-design-smart-business-experiments.

209 Интервью взято автором.

210 Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt. Think Like a Freak: How to Think Smarter About Almost Everything. L.: Allen Lane, 2014.

211 См. прекрасное эссе Эрика Риса: http://www.startuplessonslearned. com/2010/04/learning-is-better-than-optimization.html.

212 Эндрю Чэнь, ведущий блога о технологиях, замечательно доказал это в серии постов. Например: http://andrewchen.co/know-the-difference-between-data-informed-and-versus-data-driven/.