Будущее: рассекречено. Каким будет мир в 2030 году - Мэтью Барроуз

20

Прогноз сделан с помощью модели International Futures Барри Хьюза.

21

Number of Deaths due to HIV/AIDS. World Health Organization, 2012 // http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/epidemic_status/deaths_text/en/.

22

Pezzini M. An Emerging Middle Class. OECD Observer, 2012 //http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html.

23

Pezzini M. An Emerging Middle Class. OECD Observer, 2012 //http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html.

24

Больше о современных исследованиях см. Gismatullin E. Tullow Finds More Kenyan Oil to Boost East Africa Exports // Bloomberg News, 2014. January 15 //http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-15/tullow-finds-more-kenyan-oil-boosting-east-africa-export-plans.html.

25

Milanovic B. Global Income Inequality by the Numbers: in History and Now // Policy Research Working Paper 6259, World Bank, November 2013 // http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64210502&theSitePK=469372&piPK=64210520&menuPK=64166093&entityID=000158349_20121106085546.

26

Asia 2050, с. 23.

27

Dickson J. R., Hughes B. B., Irfan M. T. Advancing Global Education: Patterns of Potential Human Progress. New Delhi: Oxford University Press India, 2010. P. 24.

28

Dickson J. R., Hughes B. B., Irfan M. T. Advancing Global Education: Patterns of Potential Human Progress. New Delhi: Oxford University Press India, 2010. с. 49.

29

Данные получены с использованием модели International Futures, предоставлена профессором Барри Хьюзом из Университета Денвера.

30

Dickson, Advancing Global Education, с. 28–29.

31

Asian Universities // Economist, 2013. April 23 // http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/04/focus-4.

32

Wagner C. S., Leydesdorff L. Implications for US Science Policy of the Growth of Global Science. Ноябрь 2013 г., неопубликованная работа, файл Microsoft Word.

33

French Employment 2020: Five Priorities for Action. McKinsey Global Institute, March 2012. Pp. 1–3 // http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/employment_and_growth/french_employment_2020.

34

Changing the Fortunes of America’s Workforce: A Human Capital Challenge. McKinsey Global Institute, June 2009 // MGI_Changing_the_fortunes_of_Americas_workforce_full_report.pdf.

35

Changing the Fortunes of America’s Workforce: A Human Capital Challenge. McKinsey Global Institute, June 2009 // MGI_Changing_the_fortunes_of_Americas_workforce_full_report.pdf.

36

Pandya A. A. Muslim Indians: Struggle for Inclusion. Washington, DC: Stimson Center, 2010. April 19. Pp. 42–49 // http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Muslim_Indians-Complete.pdf.

37

Choudaha R., Chang Li. Trends in International Student Mobility. World Education Services, February 2012 // http://www.uis.unesco.org/Library/Documents/research-trends-international-student-mobility-education-2012-en.pdf.

38

Wan W. In China, Parents Bribe to Get Students into Top Schools, Despite Campaign Against Corruption // Washington Post, 2013. October 7 // http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-china-parents-bribe-to-get-students-into-top-schools-despite-campaign-against-corruption/2013/10/07/fa8d9d32-2a61-11e3-8ade-a1f23cda135e_print.html.

39

Osnos E. Will the Middle Class Shake China? // New Yorker, 2013. March 8 // http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2013/03/will-the-middle-class-shake-china.html.

40

Jensen D. N. In Search of Russia’s Middle Class. Institution of Modern Russia, 2013. May 29 // http://russialist.org/in-search-of-russias-middleclass/; Wilson J. Russia’s Elusive Middle Class // School of Russian and Asian Studies, 2004. October 22 // http://www.sras.org/russian_middle_class.

41

См. мнение Ричарда Чинкотта по этому поводу в статье Socioeconomic Studies // Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East, E. Laipson, ed. Washington, DC: Stimson Center, 2011. Pp. 29–36 // http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Full_Pub_-_Seismic_Shift.pdf.

42

Американский показатель 15 тысяч долларов подсчитан на основании уровней паритета покупательной способности. Это показатели пересчета валюты, уравнивающие покупательную способность различных валют, исключая разницу в уровне цен в разных странах. В самом простом виде ППС – коэффициенты, показывающие уровни цен в национальных валютах на один товар для разных стран. Подробнее см.: OECD, Purchasing Power Parities – Frequently Asked Questions // http://www.oecd.org/std/purchasingpowerparities-frequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm.

43

См.: Jian Li, Xiaohan Niu. The New Middle Class in Peking: A Case Study // China Perspectives, 2003. January – February // chinaperspectives-228-45-the-new-middle-class-in-peking-a-case-study.pdf.

44

Osnos, Will the Middle Class Shake China?

45

Osnos, Will the Middle Class Shake China?

46

Osnos, Will the Middle Class Shake China?

47

Больше информации о методологии есть на сайте Министерства труда США, индекс потребительских цен: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm#Question_9.

48

Цитаты из личной беседы в конце октября 2013 года в Массачусетском технологическом институте. Схожие взгляды высказал профессор Алекс Пентланд в своей статье (© Mathew Burrows, 2014): How Big Data Can Transform Society for the Better // Scientific American, 2013. September 17. Vol. 309, issue 4 // http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-big-data-can-transform-society-for-the-better/.

49

Pentland A. Big Data: Balancing the Risks and Rewards of Data Driven Public Policy // Annual Global IT Report, World Economic Forum (в процессе публикации).

50

Bradsher K. China Blocks Web Access to Times After Article // New York Times, 2012. October 25 // http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/world/asia/china-blocks-web-access-to-new-york-times.html.

51

Chase M. S., Mulvenon J. C. You’ve Got Dissent! Chinese Dissident Use of the Internet and Beijing’s Counter-Strategies. RAND, 2002 // http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1543.html. Цитата со с. 40–43 первой главы, см. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1543/MR1543.ch1.pdf.

52

MacKinnon R. Google Confronts the Great Firewall. New America Foundation, 2012. May 31 // http://newamerica.net/publications/articles/2012/google_confronts_the_great_firewall_69819.

53

Chase and Mulvenon, You’ve Got Dissent!

54

“Google’s Eric Schmidt: Internet Could Make Censorship Impossible. Беседа со Скоттом Пелли, CBS News, 24 февраля 2014 г. // http://www.cbsnews.com/news/googles-eric-schmidt-internet-could-make-censorship-impossible/.

55

Schmidt E. E., Cohen J. The Future of Internet Freedom // New York Times, 2013. March 11 // http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/opinion/the-future-of-internet-freedom.html.

56

Schmidt E. E., Cohen J. The Future of Internet Freedom // New York Times, 2013. March 11 // http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/opinion/the-future-of-internet-freedom.html.

57

The World’s Muslims: Religion, Politics and Society. Pew Research, 2013. April 30 // http://www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview/.

58

Nationalism and Russia’s Global Image. Pew Research, 2012. May 23 // http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/23/chapter-5-nationalism-and-russias-global-image/.

59

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). Report on Global Trends 2030. Institute for Security Studies, European Union, 2012. April 27 // http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/espas-report-global-trends-2030-citizens-in-an-interconnected-and-polycentric-world/; Pew Research Center. The Global Middle Class: Views on Democracy, Religion, Values, and Life Satisfaction in Emerging Nations, 2009. February 12 // http://www.pewglobal.org/2009/02/12/the-global-middle-class.

60

Rethinking Personal Data: Strengthening Trust. World Economic Forum, May 2012 // http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_IT_RethinkingPersonalData_Report_2012.pdf.

61

Bughin J., Manyika J. Internet Matters: Essays in Digital Transformation. McKinsey Global Institute, March 2012 // MGI_Internet_matters_essays_in_digital_transformation.pdf.

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