Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Нил Фергюсон

David Ellinghaus et al., «Genomewide Association Study of Severe COVID-19 with Respiratory Failure», NEJM, June 17, 2020, pp. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283; Gabi Zietsman, «One Blood Type Seems to Be More Resistant Against COVID-19», Health24 Infectious Diseases, June 15, 2020, https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/one-blood-type-seemstobemore-resistant-against-covid19202006132.

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Takuya Sekine et al., «Robust T Cell Immunity in Convalescent Individuals with Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19», BioRxiv, June 29, 2020, pp. 1-35, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888; Li Junwei et al., «Mapping the T Cell Response to COVID-19», Nature Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy 5, no. 112 (July 2, 2020), pp. 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41392-020-002281; Alessandro Sette and Shane Crotty, «Pre-Existing Immunity to SARS-CoV2: The Knowns and Unknowns», Nature Reviews Immunology 20 (July 7, 2020), pp. 457–458, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41577-020-0389z; Floriane Gallaise et al., «Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Induces Cellular Immune Response Without Seroconversion», MedRxiv, June 22, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449; Paul W. Franks and Joacim Rocklöv, «Coronavirus: Could It Be Burning Out After 20 % of a Population Is Infected?» The Conversation, June 29, 2020, https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-coulditbeburning-out-after20ofapopulationisinfected-141584; Julian Braun et al., «Presence of SARS-CoV2 Reactive T Cells in COVID-19 Patients and Healthy Donors», MedRxiv, April 22, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440; Kevin W. Ng et al., «Pre-Existing and De Novo Humoral Immunity to SARS-CoV2 in Humans», BioRxiv, July 23, 2020, pp. 1-38, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414; Nikolai Eroshenko et al., «Implications of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Infection for SARS-CoV2 Countermeasures», Nature Biotechnology 38 (June 5, 2020), pp. 789–791, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-020-05771.

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UnHerd, «Karl Friston: Up to 80 % Not Even Susceptible to COVID-19», June 4, 2020, YouTube video, 34:14, https://youtu.be/dUOFeVIrOPg; Laura Spinney, «COVID-19 Expert Karl Friston: ‘Germany May Have More Immunological Dark Matter,’» Guardian, May 31, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid19expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter.

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Jia Yong et al., «Analysis of the Mutation Dynamics of SARS-CoV2 Reveals the Spread History and Emergence of RBD Mutant with Lower ACE2 Binding Affinity», BioRxiv, April 11, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.034942; B. Korber et al., «Spike Mutation Pipeline Reveals the Emergence of a More Transmissible Form of SARS-CoV2», BioRxiv, April 30, 2020, pp. 1-33, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054. См. также: Stephen Chen, «Coronavirus’s Ability to Mutate Has Been Vastly Underestimated, and Mutations Affect Deadliness of Strains, Chinese Study Finds», South China Morning Post, April 20, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study.

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Joshua Geleris et al., «Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19», NEJM, June 18, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2012410; Alexandre B. Cavalcanti et al., «Hydroxychloroquine With or Without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014; David R. Boulware et al.,

«A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638.

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«COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker», Faster Cures, Milken Institute, August 14, 2020, https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org/. См. в целом: Tung Thanh Le et al., «The COVID-19 Vaccine Development Landscape», Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 19 (April 9, 2020), pp. 305–306, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41573-020-000735.

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Stuart A. Thompson, «How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?» New York Times, April 30, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html.

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Nicholas Kumleben, R. Bhopal, T. Czypionka, L. Gruer, R. Kock, Justin Stebbing, and F. L. Stigler, «Test, Test, Test for COVID-19 Antibodies: The Importance of Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Powers», Public Health 185 (August 2020), pp. 88–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.06.006.

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Albert-László Barabási, Network Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), chap. 10.

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За эту точку зрения я благодарен Сесилии Масколо из Кембриджского университета.

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Matthew J. Ferrari et al., «Network Frailty and the Geometry of Herd Immunity», Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273, no. 1602 (November 7, 2006), pp. 2743–2748, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3636. См. также: M. Gabriela Gomes et al., «Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold», MedRxiv, May 21, 2020, pp. 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.

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Tom Britton, Frank Ball, and Pieter Trapman, «The Disease-Induced Herd Immunity Level for COVID-19 Is Substantially Lower than the Classical Herd Immunity Level», Quantitative Biology: Populations and Evolution, May 8, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085. См. также: Ricardo Aguas et al., «Herd Immunity Thresholds for SARS-CoV2 Estimated from Unfolding Epidemics», MedRxiv, July 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762.

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Charles Musselwhite, Erel Avineri, and Yusak Susilo, «Editorial JTH 16-The Coronavirus Disease COVID-19 and Its Implications for Transport and Health», Journal of Transport & Health 16 (March 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2020.100853.

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Michael Laris, «Scientists Know Ways to Help Stop Viruses from Spreading on Airplanes. They’re Too Late for This Pandemic», Washington Post, April 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/scientists-think-they-know-waystocombat-virusesonairplanes-theyre-too-late-for-this-pandemic/2020/04/20/83279318-76ab-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html.

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Министерство торговли США, Управление международной торговли, Национальное бюро путешествий и туризма.

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«Historical Flight Status», FlightStats by Cerium, https://www.flightstats.com/v2/historical-flight/subscribe.

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