Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Фергюсон Ниал (Нил)

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1562

James Hansen et al., «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations That 2 °C Global Warming Is Highly Dangerous», Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15, no. 14 (July 23, 2015), pp. 20059-20179.

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1563

IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds. Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. A. Meyer (Geneva: IPCC, 2014), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf. See Christopher R. Schwalm, Spencer Glendon, and Philip B. Duffy, «RCP8.5 Tracks Cumulative CO2 Emissions», PNAS 117, no. 33 (August 18, 2020), pp. 19656-19657, https://www.pnas.org/content/117/33/19656.

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1564

David Frame and Myles R. Allen, «Climate Change and Global Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 279–281. См. также: Bjorn Lomborg, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet (New York: Basic Books, 2020); Michael Shellenberger, Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All (New York: HarperCollins, 2020).

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1565

Elizabeth Weil, «They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?» ProPublica, August 28, 2020, https://www.propublica.org/article/they-know-howtoprevent-megafires-why-wont-anybody-listen.

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1566

Chingy Tse-Cheng, «Expert Warns China’s Three Gorges Dam in Danger of Collapse», Taiwan News, June 22, 2020, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3951673; Keoni Everington, «Videos Show Massive Flooding in S. China, Three Gorges Dam Next», Taiwan News, June 23, 2020, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3952434.

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1567

Jacob B. Lowenstern et al., «Steam Explosions, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions – What’s in Yellowstone’s Future?» U. S. Geological Survey and National Park Service (2005), https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/fs2005–3024.pdf.

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1568

Milan Cirkovic, «Observation Selection Effects and Global Catastrophic Risks», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 135–137.

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1569

Arnon Dar, «Influence of Supernovae, Gamma-Ray Bursts, Solar Flares, and Cosmic Rays on the Terrestrial Environment», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 259.

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1570

Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018), p. 322. См. также: «The World Should Think Better About Catastrophic and Existential Risks», Economist, June 25, 2020, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/06/25/the-world-should-think-better-about-catastrophic-and-existential-risks.

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1571

Frank Wilczek, «Big Troubles, Imagined and Real», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 356f. См. также: Katsuhiko Sato, «First-Order Phase Transition of a Vacuum and the Expansion of the Universe», Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 195 (May 1981), pp. 467–479.

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1572

Nick Bostrom, «The Vulnerable World Hypothesis», Working Paper, v.3.42, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford (2018).

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1573

Joseph Cirincione, «The Continuing Threat of Nuclear War», and William C. Potter and Gary Ackerman, «Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism:

A Preventable Peril», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008). См. также: Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 278f.

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1574

Ali Nouri and Christopher F. Chyba, «Biotechnology and Biosecurity», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 456f.

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1575

Martin Jinek et al., «A Programmable Dual-RNA – Guided-DNA Endonuclease in Adaptive Bacterial Immunity», Science 337, no. 6096 (August 17, 2012), pp. 816–821. См. также: Jennifer Kahn, «The CRISPR Quandary», New York Times Magazine, November 9, 2015, www.nytimes.come/2015/11/15/magazine/the-cripsr-quandary.html.

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1576

«Biotech: DIY Disaster Zone», Financial Times, June 23, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/7c0d9214-938d-4931-868e-e3533b8da70a.

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1577

Christopher Wills, Children of Prometheus: The Accelerating Pace of Human Evolution (Reading, MA: Perseus, 1998).

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1578

Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 292–299.

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1579

Eliezer Yudkowsky, «AI as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 201–207. См. также: James J. Hughes, «Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 79–81.

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1580

Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, «Nanotechnology as Global Catastrophic Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 488f. See K. E. Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1992).

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1581

Toby Ord, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity (New York: Hachette, 2020).

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1582

Richard A. Posner, «Public Policy Towards Catastrophe», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 186f. Некоторые интересные предложения, как с этим справиться, см: Bina Venkataraman, The Optimist’s Telescope (New York: Penguin 2019), and Margaret Heffernan, Uncharted: How to Map the Future Together (London: Simon & Schuster, 2020).

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1583

Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 356, 362–364.

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1584

Bostrom, «Vulnerable World Hypothesis», pp. 17–23.

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1585

Bostrom, «Vulnerable World Hypothesis», pp. 23, 28. Подобные аргументы приводили и другие авторы, чьи работы вошли в издание: Christopher Wills, «Evolutionary Theory and the Future of Humanity», and Robin Hanson, «Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 67, 373f.

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1586

Bryan Caplan, «The Totalitarian Threat», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 511–514.

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1587

Юваль Ной Харари. 21 урок для XXI века / Пер. Ю. Гольдберга. М., 2019.

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1588