Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости - Нассим Талеб

They'd Never Sent. London: Chrysalis Books. Bernard, Claude, 1878, La science experimentale. Paris: J.-B. Bailliere. Bernoulli, Daniel, 1954, "Exposition of a New Theory on the

Measurement of Risk." Econometrica 22(1): 23-36. Bernstein, Peter L., 1996, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of

Risk. New York: Wiley. Berridge, Kent C, 2003, "Irrational Pursuits: Hyper-incentives from.

a Visceral Brain." In I. Brocas and J. Carillo, eds., 2003. Berry, M., 1978, "Regular and Irregular Motion, in Topics in Nonlinear

Mechanics," ed. S. Jorna, American Institute of Physics Conference

Proceedings No. 46,16-120. Bevan, Edwyn, 1913, Stoics and Sceptics. Chicago: Ares Publishers, Inc.

Bewes, Timothy, 2002, Reification: or The Anxiety of Late Capitalism.

London: Verso.

Bewley, Ronald A., and Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002, "On the Herding Instinct of Interest Rate Forecasters." Empirical Economics 27(3): 403-425.

Bhalla, U. S., and R. Iyengar, 1999, "Emergent Properties of Networks of Biological Signalling Pathways. Science 283: 381-387.

Bharat, Barot, 2004, "How Accurate are the Swedish Forecasters on GDP-Growth, CPI-Inflation and Unemployment?, i993-2ooi."£russeZs Economic ReviewICahiers Economiques de Bruxelles 47, 2 Editions du DULBEA, Universite libre de Bruxelles, 249-278.

Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades." Journal of Political Economy 100 (5): 992-1026.

Binmore, K., 1999, "Why Experiment in Economics?" Economic Journal 109(453): 16-24.

Birnbaum,М.Н.,1983,"BaseRatesinBayesianInference:Signal

DetectionAnalysisoftheCabProblem."American Journal of

Psychology 96(1):85-94.

Bjorkman,M.,1987,"ANoteonCueProbabilityLearning:What

ConditioningDataRevealAboutCueContrast."Scandinavian Journal

of Psychology 28:226-232.

,1994,"InternalCueTheory:CalibrationandResolutionof

ConfidenceinGeneralKnowledge."Organizational Behavior and

Human Decision Processes 58:386-405. Bjorkman,M.,P.Juslin,andA.Winman,1993,"RealismofConfidence

inSensoryDiscrimination:TheUnderconfidencePhenomenon."

Perception and Psychophysics 54:75-81. Blake,Carole,1999,From Pitch to Publication. London:Pan.rl(y Blake,David,MichaelBeenstock,andValerieBrasse,1986,"The

PerformanceofUKExchangeRateForecasters."Economic Journal

96(384):986-999. Blaug,Mark,1992,The Methodology of Economics, 2nded.Cambridge:

CambridgeUniversityPress.Bloch,Marc,1953,The Historian's Craft.

NewYork:VintageBooks. Blyth,M.R.Abdelal,andCr.Parsons,2005,Constructivist Political

Economy. Preprint,forthcoming,2006:OxfordUniversityPress. Board,J.,C.Sutcliffe,andE.Patrinos,2000,"PerformanceofCovered

Calls."European Journal of Finance 6(1):1-17. Bocarra,Nino,2004,Modeling Complex Systems. Heidelberg:Springer." Boettke,PeterJ.,ChristopherJ.Coyne,andPeterT.Leeson,2006,

"HighPriestsandLowlyPhilosophers:TheBattlefortheSoulof

Economics,"aforthcomingarticleintheCase Western Law Review. Boots,M.,andA.Sasaki,1999,"'Smallworlds'andtheEvolutionof §Virulence:InfectionOccursLocallyandataDistance,"Proceedings of

the Royal Society of London В266:1933-1938. Bostrom,Nick,2002,Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in

Science and Philosophy. London:Routledge. Bouchaud,J.-P.,andM.Potters,2003,Theory of Financial Risks and

Derivatives Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management, 2nd

ed.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress. BouRDe,Guy,andHerveMartin,1989,Les ecoles historiques. Paris:

EditionsduSeuil.

Bourdieu, Pierre, 1992,Les regies de Vart. Paris: Editions du Seuil.

,1996,Sur la television suivi de Uemprise du journalisme. Paris:

Raison d'Agir.

,2000,Esquisse d'une theorie de la pratique. Paris: Editions de

Seuil.

Bouvier, Alban, ed., 1999,Pareto aujourd'hui. Paris: Presses

Universitaires de France.

Boyer, Pascal, 2001,Religion Explained: The Evolutionary Origins of

.1 Religious Thought. New York: Basic Books.

Braudel, Fernand, 1953,"Georges Gurvitch ou la discontinue du

social."AnnalesE.S.C. 8:347-361.

,1969,EcritssurVhistoire.Paris: Flammarion.

,1985,La Mediterranee: Vespace et Vhistoire. Paris: Flammarion.

,1990,Ecrits sur Vhistoire II. Paris: Flammarion.

Braun, P. A., and I. Yaniv, 1992,"A Case Study of Expert Judgment: „ Economists' Probabilities Versus Base-rate Model Forecasts." Journal

of Behavioral Decision Making 5:217-231. Brehmer, В., and C. R. В. Joyce, eds., 1988,Human Judgment: The SJT

View. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Brender, A., and F. Pisani, 2001,Les Marches etla croissance. Economica. Brenner, L. A., D. J. Koehler, V. Liberman, and A. Tversky, 1996,

"Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical

Examination." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

'65:212-219.

Brocas, I., and J. Carillo, eds., 2003,The Psychology of Economic

Decisions, Vol. 1:Rationality and Well-Being. Oxford: Oxford

University Press. Brochard, Victor, 1878,De Verreur. Paris: Universite de Paris.

,1888,Les sceptiques grecs. Paris: Imprimerie Nationale.

Brock, W. A., and P. J. F. De Lima, 1995,"Nonlinear Time Series,

Complexity Theory, and Finance." University of Wisconsin,

Madison—Working Papers 9523. Brock, W. A., D. A. Hsieh, and В. LeBaron, 1991,Nonlinear Dynamics,

Chaos, and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence.

Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

Brockman, John, 2005,Discussion with Benoit Mandelbrot, www.edge.

org.

Brookes-Gunn, J., and G. Duncan, 1994,Consequences of Growing Up

Broughton, W., and E. W. Mills, 1980,"Resource Inequality and Accumulative Advantage: Stratification in the Ministry." Social Forces 58:1289-1301.

Brugger, R, and R. E. Graves, 1997,"Right Hemispatial Inattention and Magical Ideation." European Archive of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience 247(1):55-57.

Bruner, Jerome, 1994,"The 'Remembered' Self." In Ulric Neisser and Robyn Fivush, eds., The Remembering Self: Construction and Accuracy in the Self-Narrative. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

,2002,Making Stories: Law, Literature, Life. New York: Farrar,

Straus &c Giroux.

Bruner, Jerome S., and Mary C. Potter, 1964,"Interference in Visual

Recognition." Science 144(3617):424-425. Brunswik, E., 1952,The Conceptual Framework of Psychology. Chicago:

The University of Chicago Press.

,1955,"Representative Design and Probabilistic Theory in a

Functional Psychology." Psychological Review 62:193-217. Buchanan, Mark, 2001,Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen. New York:

Three Rivers Press.

,2002,Nexus: Small Worlds and the Groundbreaking Theory of

Networks. New York: W. W. Norton and Company. Budescu, D. V, I. Erev, and T. S. Wallsten, 1997,"On the Importance

of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part I: New

Theoretical Developments." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

10:157-171.

Buehler, R., D. Griffin, and M. Ross, 2002,"Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions." In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

Bundt, Thomas, and Robert P. Murphy, 2006,"Are Changes in Macroeconomic Variables Normally Distributed? Testing an Assumption of Neoclassical Economics." Preprint, NYU Economics Department.

Burnham, Terence C, 1997,Essays on Genetic Evolution and Economics.

New York: Dissertation.com.

,2003,"Caveman Economics." Preprint, Harvard Business School.

Burnham,Т.,andJ.Phelan,2000,Mean Genes. Boston:Perseus

Publishing.ц Bushman,B.J.,andG.L.Wells,2001,"NarrativeImpressionsof

Literature:TheAvailabilityBiasandtheCorrectivePropertiesof

Meta-analyticApproaches."Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin

27:1123-1130.

Callaway,D.S.,M.E.J.Newman,S.H.Strogatz,andD.J.Watts,2000,

"NetworkRobustnessandFragility:PercolationonRandomGraphs."

Physical Review Letters 85:5468-5471. Camerer,C,1995,"IndividualDecisionMaking."InJohnH.Kagel

andAlvinE.Roth,eds.,The Handbook of Experimental Economics.

Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress.

,2003,Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic

Interaction. Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress. Camerer,ColinF.,GeorgeLoewenstein,andD.Prelec,2003,

"Neuroeconomics:HowNeuroscienceCanInformEconomics."

CaltechWorkingPaper. Camerer,ColinF.,GeorgeLoewenstein,andMatthewRabin,2004,

Advances in Behavioral Economics. Princeton,N.J.:Princeton

UniversityPress.

Cannon,WalterВ.,1940,"TheRoleofChanceinDiscovery."Scientific

Monthly 50:204-209. Carnap,R.,1950,The Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago:The

UniversityofChicagoPress.

,1966,Philosophical Foundations of Physics. NewYork:Basic

Books.

Carr,EdwardHallett,1961,What Is History? NewYork:VintageBooks. Carter,С.E,G.P.Meredith,andG.L.S.Shackle,1962,Uncertainty and

Business Decisions. Liverpool:LiverpoolUniversityPress. Carter,Rita,1999,Mapping the Mind. Berkeley:UniversityofCaliforniaPress.

,2002,Exploring Consciousness. Berkeley:UniversityofCaliforniaPress.

Casanova,GiovanniGiacomo,1880,Memoires de J. Casanova de

Seingalt. Paris:GamierFreres. Casscells,W.,A.Schoenberger,andT.Grayboys,1978,"Interpretation

byPhysiciansofClinicalLaboratoryResults."New England Journal of

Medicine 299:999-1000.

Cerf,Christopher,andVictorNavasky,1998,The Expert Speaks: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation. NewYork: VillardBooks.

Certeau,Michelde,1975,UEcriture de Vhistoire. Paris:Gallimard. Chamley,ChristopheP.,2004,Rational Herds: Economic Models of Social

Learning. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress. Chancellor,Edward,1999,Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of

Financial Speculation. NewYork:Farrar,Straus8cGiroux. Chartier,Roger,1996,Culture et societe. Vordre des livres, XVIe-XVIIIe.

Paris:AlbinMichel. Chen,Keith,VenkatLakshminarayanan,andLaurieSantos,2005,

"TheEvolutionofOurPreferences:EvidencefromCapuchin

MonkeyTradingBehavior."CowlesFoundationDiscussionPaper

No.1524.

Chen,Qi,JenniferFrancis,andWeiJiang,2002,"InvestorLearning

AboutAnalystPredictiveAbility."WorkingPaper,DukeUniversity. Cherniak,C,1994,"ComponentPlacementOptimizationintheBrain."

Journal ofNeuroscience 14:2418-2427. Chipman,John,2006,"TheParetianHeritage."WorkingPaper,

UniversityofMinnesota. Cialdini,RobertВ.,2001,Influence: Science and Practice. Boston:Allyn

andBacon.

Cisne,JohnL.,2005,"MedievalManuscripts''Demography'andClassic

Texts'Extinction."Science 307(5713):1305-1307. Clark,Barrett,andPascalBoyer,2006,"Causal Inferences: Evolutionary • Domains and Neural Systems, ciInterdisciplinesConferenceon